All right, so the Chicago Cubs seem to have three clear free agent targets for their starting rotation and honestly I'd still have Zac Gallen as plan D behind Tatsuya Imai, Michael King and a trade. Especially at this point of the offseason it doesn't make much sense to me that the Cubs would already settle for Gallen with so many arms available and the trade market is also untapped. But the Cubs do appear to have serious interest in Gallen, so let's try to muster out some positivity on his future after his career worst year.
The 30-year-old pitcher had a 4.83 ERA in 33 starts with the Arizona Diamondbacks and it's not like his peripherals told a better story either as Gallen had a 4.28 xERA, 4.50 FIP and 4.12 xFIP. He allowed an average of 1.45 HR per nine innings pitched, or 31 home runs in 192 innings, the fourth-highest HR rate among qualified pitchers in MLB in 2025.
Not great as Gallen was hoping to cash in on a huge free agent contract entering 2026. Yet, his track record does suggest that the right-hander can return to form. I mean, from 2019-2023, he had a strikeout rate of 26.9% and posted a 3.21 ERA across those five seasons. Gallen was still good in 2024, when he had a 3.65 ERA in 28 starts with a 25.1 K%. His walks did begin to creep up though and in 2025, Gallen's walk rate was above 8% for the second straight year.
The right-handed pitcher did end the 2025 season on a strong note as Gallen recorded a 3.32 ERA in his final 11 starts that covered 65 innings of work. So, I won't completely dismiss the chances of Gallen pitching up to his previous results that at one point made him a Cy Young contender in the National League. There was also one note that caught my eye when reading Patrick Mooney's report on the Cubs' interest in Gallen that gave me more hope if this ends up being the addition to the team's rotation.
After USA Today's Bob Nightengale mistakenly reported that the Cubs were close to a deal with Gallen on Saturday, a report Nightengale eventually walked back and was also refuted by Jeff Passan, Mooney confirmed in The Athletic that the Cubs are in fact targeting Gallen as part of their wide search for pitching this offseason. And here's the part that may be the key to unlocking Gallen.
Mooney pointed out that current Cubs catcher Carson Kelly has caught more innings from Gallen than anyone else during the pitcher's MLB career and during their time in Arizona Gallen recorded an impressive 2.81 ERA in 327 innings throwing to Kelly. The Cubs signed the veteran catcher to a two-year contract that includes a mutual option for the 2027 season.
With so many quality pitchers available in free agency and Gallen coming off his worst season in the majors I don't see him signing a longterm deal. That could end up working perfectly into the Cubs' hands, who may try to sign Gallen to a shorter contract that could include an early opt out in case Gallen doesn't like his current market this offseason. Who knows, maybe a reunion with Kelly benefits Gallen and the Cubs in 2026. The team gets an ace and Gallen resets his market and will still be relatively young if he re-enters free agency next offseason.
For whatever it's worth, Kelly's catcher ERA in his first season with the Cubs in 2025, was 3.61, leading the way behind the plate ahead of Reese McGuire (4.00) and Miguel Amaya (4.27).
