A quarter of the 2017 MLB season is already over, and the reigning champion (still feels surreal and amazing to type that)
Chicago Cubs are sitting at 21-20, in third place in the NL Central, and three games off the lead.
No, it’s not quite close to the absurd start they had last year at 25-6, locking up the division crown in early May and cruising into October. But for a team that barely had an offseason and has yet to get major contributions from many of their star players, things could be a lot worse.
So, with 25% of the season in the books, what’s gone right and what’s gone wrong for the defending champs? Let’s explore.
The Good
Kris Bryant
After a brutal 0-15 start to the season, the reigning MVP has looked like himself. Bryant is hitting .289 with eight homers, his OBP is up to .394 and his OPS is .934. While his strikeout numbers are still high, he’s still getting his fair share of walks. His RBI numbers are down, with just 20 so far. But that has more to do with Kyle Schwarber struggling in the leadoff spot. The table hasn’t been set enough for Bryant to do his thing. That’ll improve.
Back-End Of The Bullpen
Wade Davis’s dominance is well-documented. Davis is a perfect 9/9 in save opportunities, and the lone run he has given up was unearned. What’s most appreciated is that there have been no nail-biting moments with Davis on the mound yet. It’s been fun to watch.
Carl Edwards Jr. has been lights out as well. He’s been labeled the closer of the future by many, and for good reason: his stuff is electric. If he can improve his control (he’s still susceptible to walks in bunches), the Cubs have, at least, a two-headed monster to unleash at the end of games.
Koji Uehara and Hector Rondon have struggled mightily in a few situations respectively, and their ERAs are in the mid-3s because of those few situations. But for the most part, they’ve gotten the job done. Uehara is the only Cub other than Davis with a save this year. Stocking up on pitchers with closing experience was a good move from the front office.
Ian Happ
Yes, the sample size is small, but Happ has been unbelievable in his cup of coffee so far with the big league team. He’s already played all three outfield positions, and 1/5 of his plate appearances have resulted in extra-base hits. He’s hitting .333, and is OBP and OPS are a stunning .462 and 1.176 respectively. Bryce Harper-esque numbers (and yes, I already said the sample size is small).
What’s amazing is that 6 games into his career, he has already been worth half a win, with a WAR of 0.5. There’s no way the Cubs can justify sending him down to the minors in the near future with him performing like this.
Honorable Mentions: Kyle Hendricks, Jason Heyward’s New Swing, Mike Montgomery
The Bad
The Offense, Minus Bryant
Kyle Schwarber has struggled in the leadoff spot. He’s hitting .182 with an OBP of .305. I love Schwarber, but that’s not going to get it done. Joe Maddon is tinkering with the idea of moving Schwarber down in the lineup, which may be beneficial for the rest of the lineup, too.
Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell, Willson Contreras, Ben Zobrist, and Javier Baez are all hitting under .250. And while Jason Heyward was hitting some bullets before he got hurt, his average is also sitting at just .253. This team is too good for things to continue like this, but everyone struggling at the same time has contributed to the slow start.
First Innings
It is unreal how many times the Cubs have found themselves losing in the first inning. Yes, the old adage, “It’s not how you start, it’s how you finish that counts” is great and all, but with an offense that has yet to put it together, having to climb uphill right away every game is not ideal. Yes, the Cubs did a decent job of coming back earlier this week in the series against the Cincinnati Reds. But the first inning bleeding rate needs to improve.
Dishonorable Mentions: Pedro Strop,
Situational Hitting
The Ugly
Jake Arrieta
Arrieta has been the mystery of the season so far. I don’t care so much about the velocity. Yes, it’s down. But his biggest problems have been command and location. He has missed his spots with the utmost consistency this season, one of the biggest reasons he’s already surrendered eight home runs. He’s not walking people as much as he did in the second half of last year, but his 5.44 ERA and 1.46 WHIP are not really a fluke.
There are numbers to suggest that part of Arrieta’s struggles have been bad luck. For example,
according to Beyond the Boxscore, his average exit velocity ranks 308
th out of 373 pitchers, and his average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives ranks 309
th. Pretty damn good. But hitters
are making a lot more contact and laying off a lot more “bad” stuff than they have in past years. That’s not an accident.
The hope is that these struggles don’t become a mental block for Jake. He’s in a contract year, and with each bad start comes mounting pressure to make up for it and more in the next start. That’s a death spiral waiting to happen. Let’s hope he gets it together.
Fielding / Defense
The best defense in the league last year has looked sloppy, and at times, disinterested this year. Throwing errors, missed-catch errors, you name it. It’s been bad all around on defense. Even Javy Baez, the glove wizard, has looked mortal. The Cubs “lead” the league in unearned runs given up, which is a terrible, terrible stat.
The defense has compounded issues for their pitchers this year. Errors mean that starters need to throw more pitches to get out of the same inning. And relievers to work out of unnecessary jams in pressure-packed situations late in games. The glove work needs to tighten up for this team to have a shot at repeating. Plain and simple.
Dishonorable Mentions: Brett Anderson, Justin Grimm
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