The Chicago Cubs are reportedly active in the trade market for a pair of aces ahead of the Winter Meetings. According to MLB reporter Jon Morosi, the Cubs are currently involved in trade talks with the Cleveland Guardians for Shane Bieber and the Tampa Bay Rays for Tyler Glasnow.
Morosi is also reporting that the Cincinnati Reds are in the mix for the pair of aces as well among other teams.
The starting pitching market is slowly beginning to ramp up here at the end of November, as the St. Louis Cardinals made the first big splash of the offseason by signing 34-year-old righty Sonny Gray to a three-year deal worth $75 million that also includes and option for 2027.
The Reds were reportedly close to signing Gray before he signed with the Cardinals and they have now turned their attention to Glasnow.
That brings us to Morosi's report Tuesday morning, when he further discussed the interest from the Cubs and Reds in Bieber and Glasnow.
Via MLB Network.
In a dream world, the Cubs block the Reds from getting either of the starting pitchers and end up trading for both of the righties themselves. That would form a helluva starting rotation for the Cubs that could look something like this:
Justin Steele
Tyler Glasnow
Shane Bieber
Jameson Taillon
Kyle Hendricks
Sweet. However, the chances of the Cubs trading for both Glasnow and Bieber are certainly low, but at this point I wouldn't say impossible. See, as much as you do want the Cubs to trade for one of them, these guys do come with risk and only one year left of control.
Let's begin with Glasnow. The 30-year-old pitcher has some of the best pure stuff in MLB and for the high ceiling that he has the Rays signed him to a two-year, $30.35 million extension in 2022, when he was still on the injured list after having Tommy John surgery in 2021. To that point, Glasnow had only pitched more than 100 innings once in his career.
Glasnow came back from his elbow surgery at the end of the 2022 season and pitched in two games before he was Tampa Bay's starter in Game 2 of the AL Wild Card Series against Cleveland. Glasnow was stellar, throwing five shutout innings, allowing two hits, while striking out five and walking none.
Unfortunately, Glasnow's 2023 season was delayed after he suffered an oblique strain during spring training and after a rehab stint in the minors, he made his season debut in late May. Glasnow ended the year with a 3.53 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, while averaging 12.15 K/9 and 2.78 BB/9.
Glasnow, who began his MLB career with the Pittsburgh Pirates, has made 88 starts and 127 total appearances. He has a 3.89 ERA, 3.58 FIP and 3.33 xFIP, while averaging 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He has been a stud when healthy, but that's the biggest red flag. Glasnow has missed huge chunks of seasons, first with a strained arm in 2019, then his elbow injury that led to Tommy John surgery in 2021 and then the oblique this past year.
The injury history plus the fact that Glasnow is owed $25 million for the 2024 season should bring his price down in talks despite being a great talent. While the Rays are obviously known to find hidden gems and seemingly have a higher hit rate in trades compared to other teams, they'd certainly love to maximize a Glasnow trade and the main way they can do that is by also sending money in a swap.
The Rays are said to be interested in getting an MLB-ready starter in return and the Cubs certainly have a handful of pitchers they could send to Tampa Bay for Glasnow. But again, this doesn't mean the Cubs are going to be dipping into their pool of highly-ranked prospects. The upside is obviously great with Glasnow, but his salary and injury history will knock his value this offseason.
Recent injuries will also affect the Guardians in trade talks regarding Bieber. The 2020 AL Cy Young winer has been better than Glasnow during his career, posting a 3.27 ERA in 132 starts and a couple relief appearances since breaking into the majors with Cleveland in 2018. In his first four years in the big leagues, Bieber averaged more than 11 strikeouts per nine innings and barely more than 2 walks per nine innings, while recording a 3.29 ERA, 3.05 FIP and 3.00 xFIP.
Bieber was still posting great numbers in 2022, with a 2.88 ERA in 31 starts, but his strikeout rate took a noticeable dip, below 9 per nine innings and in 2023 elbow inflammation limited Bieber to 21 starts. He ended the year with a 3.80 ERA, 7.52 K/9 and 2.39 BB/9.
The righty missed a couple months during the summer, but he did come back and started two games to finish off the 2023 season. Bieber is estimated to make about $12 million in his final year of arbitration and is two years younger than Glasnow. However, Bieber's recent dip in velocity that has also coincided with lower strikeout rates have raised some eyebrows.
One other note, current Cubs GM Carter Hawkins used to work for Cleveland and one of his roles was director of player development in 2015, before getting promoted to assistant GM in 2016. Cleveland selected Bieber in the fourth round of the 2016 MLB Draft.
Let us know who you prefer the Cubs to trade for, Glasnow or Bieber?
