The Chicago Cubs signed Phil Maton and we all got excited, thinking big things were coming to the bullpen. Ryan Helsley and Devin Williams were suddenly seen as realistic targets in free agency to add as the next closer, but those hopes quickly faded as each reliever signed elsewhere. However, there is still one free agent closer still available that is on the Cubs' radar and would be a welcomed addition to Craig Counsell's bullpen.
One thing though, Pete Fairbanks does have one big red flag that becomes a bit more problematic pitching in Chicago.
The Cubs have reportedly had interest in getting Fairbanks dating back to the trade deadline back in July, but they ultimately could not get a deal done with the Tampa Bay Rays. Fairbanks stayed put and ended the season with a 2.83 ERA in 60.1 innings. The right-hander saved 27 games for Tampa Bay and set career highs with 61 appearances and innings pitched for a single season.
The 31-year-old has been pretty damn good since the start of the 2020 season. In the past six years Fairbanks has posted a 2.87 ERA with a strikeout rate of 30.2%. The rest of his numbers back up the strong results as the righty has a 2.94 FIP, 3.34 xFIP during that six-year period. Fairbanks has also coupled his big strikeout numbers with a 45.7% ground ball rate. Avoiding the long ball is always key for high-leverage relievers and Fairbanks has done a great job limiting major damage.
Now, you may have already seen the fact that although Fairbanks still throws very had, he averaged 97mph with his fastball that past two years, that velocity has dipped from his peak of 99mph from 2022-23. With that decrease in velocity Fairbanks has also seen his strikeout rate decline from nearly 40% a few years ago down to 24% since 2024.
I'm not too worried about that and I doubt if the Cubs do sign Fairbanks that he'll have the same trajectory that previous veterans Hector Neris and Ryan Pressly have suffered. Fairbanks has now had two seasons pitching as his new velocity and has still found a way to be productive and hasn't necessarily been lucky on the mound, which may hide overall decline in his ability.
But and there's always a but, Fairbanks does suffer from nerve-related issues that have made him loose feeling in his fingertips in the past and Raynaud's syndrome, which impacts the blood flow to the fingers and affects his grip on the ball, typically in cold weather.
These issues have become so severe for Fairbanks in the past that the closer has been forced to miss time on the injured list because of them.
Back in 2022, Fairbanks pitched against the Cleveland Guardians in Game 2 of their Wild Card Series and was taken out after only facing two batters because he could not feel his fingers. The temperature at first pitch in Cleveland was 49° F, and following the game Raynaud’s syndrome was first mentioned as the possible issue for Fairbanks.
Then, in 2024, Fairbanks missed three weeks with a nerve-related issue, eventually returning on May 11.
During his dominant stretch between 2020-25, Fairbanks pitched in 119 games indoors. He had a 2.28 ERA in those games. In 135 games pitched outdoor or in a stadium with the roof open, Fairbanks recorded a 3.34 ERA.
I hate the idea that all of a sudden on a chilly night in October the Cubs bring in Fairbanks to close out a playoff game and he looses feeling in his fingers. Or that it's April, and Fairbanks has to go on the injured list because of a nerve issue that's already been a problem before.
It's just something to keep in mind as Fairbanks is discussed in free agent rumors with the Cubs this offseason.
