I'm not going to get fooled again, but the Cubs have definitely kicked the tires on a possible trade for Nolan Arenado.
This is now the second report within a week that the Cubs have been linked to the Rockies third baseman and this time ESPN's Jeff Passan even brings up a possible trade scenario on how the Cubs could pry Arenado away from Colorado.
Last week, MLB.com's Jon Morosi had a couple things on the Arenado trade front, reporting that as many as six teams have been in contact with the Rockies. Fans were surprised when Morosi mentioned the Cubs as a potential suitor.
Via MLB.com.
One source said that as many as a half-dozen teams are in contact with the Rockies regarding the possibility of an Arenado trade. The Braves, Rangers and Nationals are believed to be among the group. The Cubs also loom as a possible suitor, especially if they trade former National League MVP Kris Bryant in a move to obtain young pitching.
Obviously I didn't take it that seriously...
But now Jeff Passan is talking about the Cubs and Arenado as well and at the very least you get the sense that Theo Epstein is trying to pull off a miracle. You know how the Cubs are trying to get better in the long term AND remain competitive in the short term? Well, Passan paints a scenario where that actually is possible, but sadly it does include trading away Kris Bryant in order to get under the $208 million luxury tax payroll for 2020.
But what if the Cubs do all that and somehow improve the roster overall this season AND get top-end prospects for the future?
So here's what Passan is spitballing. Via ESPN.
As the Colorado Rockies search for potential trade partners, two teams in particular have intrigued them, according to sources: the Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals.
The Cubs would make sense if they move Bryant. They are not primed for some sort of a rebuild as much as a refresh or reboot -- an always-difficult needle to thread, particularly if they hope to dip under the luxury-tax threshold. One source characterized the Cubs as doing due diligence, as they've done throughout the winter with myriad trade conversations, but the notion of trading catcher Willson Contreras and a higher-priced, underperforming player in an Arenado deal, then flipping Bryant to revitalize a mediocre farm system, squares in the short and long term.
Here's the thing, if Arenado is fine with getting traded and if the Rockies just want to unload his contract, then this is possible. Passan doesn't specifically name the "high-priced, underperforming player" to pair up with Willson Contreras in a trade, but we're all thinking of the same name, Jason Heyward.
All right, so Arenado has seven years and $234 million left on his contract. Heyward is owed $86 million over the next four years and Contreras is in his first arbitration eligible year, projected to earn $4.5 million in 2020. The Rockies save a bunch of money, get Contreras who can still take his game to another level and the Cubs get their third baseman of the future.
At this point I'd just move Bryant to right field if I'm the Cubs, but again they're obviously trying to get under the luxury tax threshold in 2020. So, they replenish their farm system, hopefully with some elite pitching prospects in a Bryant trade and even after all that they could have money to re-sign Nick Castellanos.
Pretty decent series of moves when you consider they're trading away Bryant, but overall, the team would improve in 2020 and they'd have some young pitchers ready for the future.
OK, now back to reality.
There are just so many things that have to fall into place for any of this to happen.
- Arenado has to waive no-trade clause
- Hope Heyward doesn't have Rockies on limited no-trade list/waives no-trade clause
- Cubs are willing to trade Contreras
- Rockies are willing to take on Heyward's contract
- Cubs find a good enough deal to trade Bryant
- Castellanos signs team-friendly deal for Cubs to stay under luxury tax
- Hopefully Arenado doesn't opt out after 2021
So, I mean, if all those things happen, sure, sign me up!
Don't hold your breath.
