The rumor mill is overflowing with Chicago Cubs mentions nowadays and it makes sense because everyone knows they're trying to trade for a starting pitcher as they attempt to right the ship during a rocky month of June. ESPN's Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel released a list on Tuesday, ranking the top-50 trade deadline candidates and the Cubs were linked to the one starting pitcher who had the highest chances of being traded.
If you take a closer look at the list, then you'll notice that the Cubs were mentioned as a possible fit for 10 of the 30 players who got a brief write-up and then six of the top-10 players, too! However, you probably shouldn't get your hopes up for a guy like Alex Bregman, who did get a Cubs connection, but not likely with his salary.
I'll focus on Zach Eflin, who was given a 75% chance of getting traded, the highest probability of all the starting pitchers who made it on the list. The other big names linked to the Cubs are your usual suspects, Sandy Alcántara, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. A few new names that may also be a fit for the Cubs included Seth Lugo, Tyler Mahle and Luis Severino.
So, why does Eflin standout? Well, he's most likely to be traded, is a pending free agent and there's been a lot of trade speculation coming out of Chicago this week that a trade could be happening soon. Out of all the starting pitchers from this ESPN list he kind of seems like the candidate who could be dealt first. If that's the case, then maybe the Cubs jump on the opportunity.
Zach Eflin
Via ESPN.
Chance of trade: 75%
Eflin is in a contract year, and his ERA has spiked from 3.59 last year to 5.46 this season, though his underlying numbers are still pretty solid. He's more of an innings-eating No. 4 starter type now than he was during his breakout 2023 season, but there's still some value to a contender.
Best fits: Houston, San Diego, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta
Last year the Baltimore Orioles traded for Eflin, acquiring the right-handed pitcher from the Tampa Bay Rays and he was pretty damn good down the stretch. Eflin made nine starts with the Orioles after he joined them at the end of July. He did miss time with a shoulder injury, but the righty posted a 2.60 ERA in 55.1 innings.
From 2020-24, Eflin made 100 starts and eight relief appearances with the Philadelphia Phillies, Rays and Orioles combined. The righty recorded a 3.76 ERA during that stretch with a 23.2 % and 3.9 BB%. He's not too far removed from his best season in the majors, as Eflin posted a 4.9 fWAR during the 2023 season with Tampa Bay. He had a 3.50 ERA in 2023 with a 26.5 K% in 177.2 innings.
The Orioles are 10 games below .500, entering play Tuesday night and are in the basement of the AL East. Eflin will be a free agent after this year and Baltimore probably wants to get rid of as much of Eflin's $18 million salary that he's set to earn in 2025.
If you're the Cubs you're thinking that Eflin can return to his previous form, which was a solid arm in the rotation with some additional upside. Maybe the Cubs can buy low right now as Eflin has an ERA above five and has recently been hit around in back-to-back starts. Before those outings Eflin was having an OK year, posting a 4.08 ERA through his first nine starts.
Is Eflin the top of the rotation arm Cubs fans are hungry for right now? No. Yet, he has a much better track record than Colin Rea, who is currently the No. 5 starter for the Cubs. The Cubs need an upgrade and trading for Eflin might just be worth the risk at this point of the season.
