Well, if you were never optimistic about this happening, then your feelings shouldn't really be changing anyway. According to at least one national MLB analyst, the Cubs are not favorites to sign free agent shortstop Carlos Correa. Instead, Steve Phillips now says the Minnesota Twins and San Francisco Giants are the frontrunners for Correa.
Phillips was on MLB Network on Monday, when he named the current favorites for the 28-year-old shortstop.
Honestly? No fucking shit, right? We all know the Twins are trying to re-sign Correa and the Giants missed out on Aaron Judge, so they have that money sitting there for someone to take.
But here's the more interesting rumblings from the Correa sweepstakes. It comes from Minnesota, as the Twins are apparently making one last push for Correa. That includes a franchise record contract on the table.
Aaron Gleeman and Dan Hayes wrote the following in The Athletic.
It’s clear the Twins believe they’re firmly in the mix for Correa, and have offered him a massive contract far beyond anything in franchise history (only Mauer is close, as you said), with a willingness to get creative with the structure if that’s what it takes. But it’s also clear he has other suitors in similarly hot pursuit, many or perhaps all of whom have the ability to blow the Twins’ offer out of the water if they choose.
Adjusted for inflation, Joe Mauer’s $184 million extension signed in March 2010 is roughly worth $252 million now. Based on the deals for Turner and Bogaerts, Correa’s new contract would likely clear $300 million. One interesting aspect is that Mauer’s annual average value of $23 million is roughly equivalent to $31.5 million now. If the Twins offered a similar annual value, they’d have a chance to bring back Correa.
I've already written how, if the Cubs are seriously interested in signing Correa, then they must offer him a record-breaking contract of their own. And I'm not talking about besting Jason Heyward's $184 million deal, the Cubs probably have to offer Correa more than Francisco Lindor's $341 million contract with the Mets. However, there could be a different route taken to convince Correa to come to the Cubs.
La Velle E. Neal III from the Star Tribune in Minnesota, is saying the Twins could be looking to move on from Correa in the next few days.
We have seen some of the lengthier free agent deals in a while this offseason, with Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts both receiving 11-year contracts. But according to Neal, Correa is interested in getting the most money per year and isn't all that concerned about a long contract.
If you want to be optimistic, then that could work in the Cubs favor, as it's been reported several times this winter that Jed Hoyer does not want to offer mega-long contracts and prefers to pay a higher AAV.
So, maybe an eight-year deal at $38.5 million AAV gets Correa to $308 million, which is more than Turner's $300 million with the Phillies and if you add Correa's $35.1 million in 2022, that takes him to $343 million, which is more than Lindor. I don't know, just thinking out loud here.
But of course, the question still remains whether Hoyer is actually going to offer a big deal to Correa. One thing is for sure, the team is definitely putting the pressure squarely on Hoyer's shoulders this offseason, leaking how ownership has given him the green light to spend and Crane Kenney going on 670 The Score, saying Hoyer has leftover resources that he didn't use last year.
Meanwhile, Dansby Swanson is still viewed as the likeliest shortstop of the top-two left to sign with the Cubs according to Jon Morosi.
More on the Cubs offseason and what Jed Hoyer must do on the Pinwheels And Ivy Podcast.
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