The Chicago Cubs have extended the qualifying offer to a pair of pending free agents and one comes at a bit of a surprise. All-Star outfielder Kyle Tucker was the obvious of the two, but the Cubs also extended the QO to left-handed starting pitcher Shōta Imanaga.
A few days ago the Cubs declined to pick up their team option that would have extended Imanaga's contract with the club for another three years at $57 million. Imanaga then declined a player option worth $15.25 million, making him a free agent.
Now, Imanaga will once again get to decide whether or not he will remain with the Cubs in 2026.
So, what happens now?
- Imanaga accepts the qualifying, immediately agrees to 1 year, $22.05 million contract and stays with the Cubs in 2026, then becomes a free agent following next season.
- Imanaga and the Cubs negotiate a new contract.
- Imanaga rejects the qualifying offer, becomes a free agent and if he signs elsewhere the Cubs will receive a draft pick after the second round of the 2026 MLB Draft.
As for Tucker, pretty straightforward, as he will reject the qualifying offer and early indications point to him definitely signing with another team, which will then net the Cubs a draft pick.
We'll see what Imanaga decides to do. In the history of the qualifying offer only 14 players have ever accepted it. He obviously declined his player option, believing that he would either get the QO, which he did, or that he can beat two years for $30 million in free agency. As for the Cubs, they obviously don't mind having Imanaga back for $22 million, but it's only a one-year deal, which is a lot easier to stomach for them than committing to three more years after the huge struggles in the last three months of the 2025 season.
A total of 13 players have received the qualifying offer this offseason.
Players have by Nov 18, to either accept or reject the one-year deal from their respective team.
(Previous Update)
This isn't all that surprising because if you're not going to use one of your starting pitchers in a win or go home postseason game, then you probably have little to no interest in locking him for multiple more years. Plus, Shōta Imanaga's home run trends, coupled with a decline in swing and miss were certainly enough to concern the Chicago Cubs about his future status in the starting rotation.
On Tuesday, Imanaga officially became a free agent after the Cubs declined to pick up a three-year option. That triggered a one-year option for Imanaga, who also declined, making him a free agent heading into the 2026 season.
The Cubs could ultimately extend the qualifying offer to Imanaga, which means he could accept it and earn $22.05 million for the 2026 season and then become a free agent following next season. Or Imanaga could decline that as well, enter the free agent market and have draft pick compensation attached to him if he signs elsewhere.
At this point, I'd probably lean toward the Cubs not extending the qualifying to Imanaga and instead go out and get a more proven pitcher in free agency. Imanaga finished the 2025 season with a 3.73 ERA in 25 starts, but he struggled in the second half, recording a 4.36 ERA in his last 16 starts. That included a stretch of allowing at least one home run in nine straight games to end the regular season and then Imanaga was also taken deep in each of his two playoff appearances before he was pretty much benched in Game 5 of the NLDS against the Milwaukee Brewers.
