This isn't all that surprising because if you're not going to use one of your starting pitchers in a win or go home postseason game, then you probably have little to no interest in locking him for multiple more years. Plus, Shōta Imanaga's home run trends, coupled with a decline in swing and miss were certainly enough to concern the Chicago Cubs about his future status in the starting rotation.
On Tuesday, Imanaga officially became a free agent after the Cubs declined to pick up a three-year option. That triggered a one-year option for Imanaga, who also declined, making him a free agent heading into the 2026 season.
The Cubs could ultimately extend the qualifying offer to Imanaga, which means he could accept it and earn $22.05 million for the 2026 season and then become a free agent following next season. Or Imanaga could decline that as well, enter the free agent market and have draft pick compensation attached to him if he signs elsewhere.
At this point, I'd probably lean toward the Cubs not extending the qualifying to Imanaga and instead go out and get a more proven pitcher in free agency. Imanaga finished the 2025 season with a 3.73 ERA in 25 starts, but he struggled in the second half, recording a 4.36 ERA in his last 16 starts. That included a stretch of allowing at least one home run in nine straight games to end the regular season and then Imanaga was also taken deep in each of his two playoff appearances before he was pretty much benched in Game 5 of the NLDS against the Milwaukee Brewers.
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We talked about the night before Game 5 of the NLDS against the Milwaukee Brewers. In the decisive game to advance to the next round the Chicago Cubs had already made it known that they had no interest in using Shōta Imanaga unless there was an emergency in Milwaukee. It started as a radio rumor and then Game 5 arrived. Veteran reliever Drew Pomeranz pitched the first inning and veteran swingman Colin Rea followed, tossing the next 2.2 innings. Craig Counsell used a total of six pitchers against the Brewers, Imanaga was not one of them.
It was already an uncomfortable conversation during the Wild Card series, when Counsell opted to use an opener in Game 2 against the San Diego Padres, instead of simply starting Imanaga. The left-hander pitched four innings and gave up a two-run homer to Manny Machado in the losing effort. Then, in the second game against the Brewers in the NLDS, Imanaga was crushed in a 7-3 loss, as he gave up four runs on five hits, including two home runs in less than three innings of work.
Imanaga won over Cubs fans in his introductory press conference, earned more supporters during his superb rookie season in MLB in 2024, but now as Jed Hoyer outlines his offseason plan, Imanaga's contract decision is a lot more difficult than the team would have imagined at the start of the season.
In 2024, Imanaga recorded a 2.91 ERA in 29 starts. The lefty was an All-Star, he led the team with 173.1 innings pitched and 174 strikeouts. He also allowed 27 home runs. This year, Imanaga was slowed down in 2025 because of a hamstring injury that kept him out of the Cubs' rotation for seven weeks. He returned at the end of June and blanked the St. Louis Cardinals over five innings.
That return start in June 26 in St. Louis was the last time Imanaga did not surrender a home run in a game. It was quite concerning to see Imanaga give up the long ball during the final three months of the regular season and that continued into the postseason, eventually leading to his out right demotion in the most important game of the year.
The left-handed starter ended the regular season giving up 31 home runs in 144.2 innings. Imanaga gave up three more home runs in 6.2 innings in the playoffs. By the way, this while pitching at Wrigley Field for half his starts, a very pitcher-friendly ballpark as of recent years with the wind conditions.
The Cubs signed Imanaga to a uniquely complicated deal heading into 2024. The deal includes options by the Cubs and the player and this is all to say it's not a clear-cut choice for the Cubs anymore.
Michael Cerami broke down all the scenarios on Bleacher Nation on what could end up happening with Imanaga in 2026. For starters, the Cubs have to decide if they'll pick up a club option that's worth $57 million over the next three years. That's the most straightforward option as it locks Imanaga under contract through 2028 with an AAV of $19 million. His actual yearly salary would be $20 million, $20 million and $17 million in 2026, 2027 and 2028, respectively.
But again, at this point it does not seem like the Cubs are going to commit or want to commit that chunk of money on a pitcher they didn't trust to use at all in a win or go postseason game. So, the Cubs will most likely decline that three-year option, which then gives Imanaga the opportunity to pick up a $15 million player option for 2026.
It's not like Imanaga was a complete disaster in 2025, despite the home run issues. He recorded a 3.73 ERA, maintained a low walk rate and also had a great 2024 season. Imanaga isn't ancient in baseball years, as he turned 32-years-old back in September, so he could conceivably do better than $15 million in free agency.
So, what happens if Imanaga says no to the $15 million? He'll become a free agent, but that doesn't mean the Cubs will be out on him. The team can extend the qualifying offer on Imanaga, which will be worth a little more than $22 million for the 2026 season.
Maybe that's ultimately the outcome that happens with the Cubs and Imanaga. Sure, the $22 million seems like a lot, but it's only a one-year deal and if Imanaga struggles again he'll be gone after 2026. The risk is a lot lower for the Cubs than paying Imanaga for another three years. As for Imanaga, he gets more money than the $15 million option, but he losses out on a potentially longer contract from another team in free agency.
That's the easy part, but of course what happens after 2026? If Imanaga does exercise his $15 million option for 2026, then there's a new set of options. The Cubs have a two-year, $42 million option they could pick up and if they decline, then Imanaga can once again pick up another $15 million player option for 2027. After that, the four-year deal concludes, guaranteeing Imanaga $53 million over four years with the Cubs.
Imanaga will likely pitch for the Cubs in 2026, but it's unfortunate that the circumstances surrounding his future on the north side of Chicago seems like more of a burden rather than a no-brain decision.
One thing seems certain, though, after losing the trust of the team in the playoffs the Cubs aren't going to choose guaranteeing Imanaga multiple more years on the club.
