There are games that you look back on and think, "that's a turning point," and last night's dramatic 7-5 win over the Philadelphia Phillies was one of those moments for the 2018 Cubs. What made the win even sweeter was the fact that when you look at all the weird shit that occurred last night, the Cubs had no business winning that ballgame.
Baseball nerds across America watched the game and probably had the biggest panic attack when the game ended with Jason Heyward walking off the Phillies with a grand slam home run. In case you're unaware, baseball nerds are the new group of writers/fans who get huge baseball boners for sabermetrics (launch angle, exit velocity, wRC+, FIP, WAR, BABIP, etc) and want to base every baseball decision on numbers and numbers alone.
This new wave of baseball was inspired greatly by one of my favorite movies, "Moneyball."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMObWsKaIls
I'm also saying the phrase 'baseball nerds' with no disrespect so please don't gather in your dungeon to plan my demise.
I've said it time and time again, I'm a fan of sabermetrics and fully appreciate how they've changed the game but you also have to understand at the end of the day, they are just numbers. I feel the good managers in the game have the perfect balance of analyzing numbers but also knowing their players on the field.
Last night's game was the perfect example of that.
Pitching
The Cubs were up against a perennial All-Star, Aaron Nola, who came into last night's game tied for second in the NL in wins, third in WHIP, fifth in ERA, and seventh in strikeouts. Critics of the Cubs for the past three years have bitched that the Cubs can't hit "good pitching" so facing Nola would be an uphill battle and the odds of the Cubs doing anything against him weren't very good.
So, of course they put three quick runs entering the fifth inning.
Add to that, the Cubs were throwing Jose Quintana who has struggled big time at Wrigley Field this year which is reflective of his 6.00 ERA at the Friendly Confines. Granted, he was facing a Phillies offense who has struggled to put runs on the board lately but as a team, Philadelphia isn't as bad as they seem. They ranked 11th in the NL in both home runs and OPS and and just put up five runs the other day against Kyle Hendricks so it appeared the offense was coming out of their funk.
So with a Cubs pitcher who struggles at home and a Phillies offense that was poised to break out of their slump, what happens?
Q was DEALING.
Play The Odds
Shit didn't get weird until Quintana left the game in the top of the sixth with runners on 1st and 2nd. He appeared to be laboring a bit and had just put on two base runners. His pitch count was sitting right below 100 so theoretically Quintana probably could have stayed in to get out of the inning. Cubs manager (and numbers wizard) Joe Maddon had other plans.
Maddon turned to the best reliever in the Cubs bullpen this year, Steve Cischek, to come in to end the Phillies threat in the sixth. With a three-run lead and the tying run at the plate, Maddon made the right call by bringing in Cischek for one simple reason -- Cischek hadn't given up a home run since July 22, 2017.
Baseball nerds everywhere rejoiced with the Maddon decision. Play the numbers, no way Cischek gives up a game-tying home run at this spot in the game, right?
Wrong.
Aaron Altherr took Cischek's first pitch to dead center to tie the ballgame and baseball nerds threw their Dungeons and Dragons figurines across the room.
So with the game tied at three entering the ninth, Maddon called on his closer Brandon Morrow to shut down Philly which would give the Cubs a shot to win it in the bottom of the ninth. Morrow has been lights out for the Cubs this season and is arguably the most consistent pitcher in the Cubs pen. Like Cischek, Morrow keeps opposing team's hits in the ballpark and hadn't given up a long ball in over 71 innings which dated back to September 8, 2016.
Baseball nerds rejoiced again.
That is until
Dylan Cozens golfed a 2-1 fastball from Morrow into the basket rimming the left-field bleachers. It was Cozen's first Major League home run.
What Is Happening?
So going into the bottom of the ninth, let's recap quick. Two Cubs pitchers who ranked 1st and 3rd in longest homerless innings (regular season) gave up a game-tying and what appeared to be a game-winning home run. Nerds across the country heads were spinning because statistics failed them not once, but TWICE.
Here comes lucky number three.
The Cubs were able to load the bases in the bottom of the inning but with two outs, Jason Heyward was at the plate. If you're a Cubs fan and you say you had confidence in Heyward before his at-bat last night you are a goddamned liar (and I LOVE Heyward).
Let's look at some numbers before his at-bat shall we?
- Heyward was hitting .139 against left handed pitchers
- He only had two grand slams in his career previous to the at-bat
- Phillies pitcher, Adam Morgan, hadn't given up an extra base hit to a lefty all year
- Lefties were 8-27 against Morgan
- Heyward hadn't hit an extra base hit off a lefty all season
- The Cubs had zero walk-off wins in 2018
- Heyward hadn't hit a home run off a lefty since June 13, 2017
I'm sure baseball nerds were screaming at Maddon to pinch-hit for Heyward because the numbers backed their theory. Heyward had other plans.
Absolutely incredible.
Maddon summed it up perfectly after the game when he was asked about how strange of a game it was last night.
"That's baseball."
Yes it was, Joe, and even though the numbers were thrown out the window -- I loved every damn second of it.
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