Let me tell you guys, I let out a cartoonish sigh when I scrolled Twitter and saw that free agent catcher Carson Kelly is nearing a deal with the Cubs because like we've been so accustomed to feeling the past few years there just aren't many strong feelings here. Signing Kelly isn't a bad move and he's certainly going to improve the catching situation for the Cubs, but there's just no big upside here.
According to several reporters, Jon Heyman, Robert Murray, Jesse Rogers and a few others, the Cubs and Kelly are getting close to an agreement, brining Chicago a much-needed veteran presence behind the plate.
Carson Kelly and the Cubs are making progress toward a deal
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 9, 2024
Kelly, 30, had one of his better offensive seasons in 2024, posting a 99 wRC+ in 313 plate appearances. The right-handed hitting catcher slashed .238/.313/.374. He recorded a 1.8 fWAR in 91 games, splitting the year with the Detroit Tigers and then the Texas Rangers.
The Cubs were linked to Kelly and fellow free agent catcher Danny Jansen this offseason, as recent as last week by 670 The Score's Bruce Levine. Jansen ended up signing with the Tampa Bay Rays, inking a one-year deal reportedly worth $8.5 million.
Kelly, a good framer, which is obviously good for the Cubs' pitching staff, also has positive marks in keeping the run game in check and blocking pitches in the dirt. Again, signing Kelly is fine. The Cubs are better and now the Cubs can split playing time at catcher between Carson and Miguel Amaya. The hope is that Amaya returns to his second-half self from 2024, after re-working his approach at the plate in early July.
In 2024, the Cubs had one of the worst catching groups in baseball, ranking 25th with a combined 69 wRC+ and tied for the third-lowest fWAR at -0.2.
Kelly hit nine home runs in 2024 and has shown some pop throughout his career. The 2019 season, albeit the juiced ball year, Kelly had a career high 18 homers in 365 plate appearances with the Arizona Diamondbacks. He hit another 13 in Arizona during the 2021 season.
Looking at his career splits, it's easy to see how the Cubs will divvy up the playing time between Kelly and Amaya. Kelly has been pretty damn good against left-handed pitching, carrying a career 117 wRC+ vs. LHP. Since the start of 2021, Kelly has recorded an .802 OPS against lefties, slashing .256/.347/.455, with 14 home runs in 360 plate appearances. Meanwhile, Amaya has actually been much better vs. RHP, posting a 99 wRC+ compared to a 58 wRC+ vs. LHP in his two seasons with the Cubs.
Cubs fans will also be familiar with Kelly going back to his days with the St. Louis Cardinals. That's where he began his MLB career, playing in 65 games across three seasons in St. Louis before Kelly was part of the Paul Goldschmidt trade on Dec. 5, 2018.
So, the Cubs seem to be set at catcher to begin the 2025 season. Kelly and Amaya will handle the starts behind the plate, while Matt Thaiss provides a depth option and then there's catching prospect Moises Ballesteros, who will continue his development at Triple-A.
