The Chicago White Sox just signed outfielder Andrew Benintendi to their largest free agent contract in franchise history and that deal should useful for the Cubs, who may be trying to sign Ian Happ to a contract extension.
Benintendi, 28, has agreed to a five-year, $75 million contract with the White Sox, following his all-star season with the Kansas City Royals and New York Yankees. While Benintendi and Happ have different hitting profiles, both outfielders have put up similar numbers throughout their careers. So, Benintendi's contract with the White Sox could be used by Happ and the Cubs to frame an extension of their own to keep the former first-round pick on the north side of Chicago.
Back in October, Jed Hoyer told reporters that the team has engaged with Happ and Nico Hoerner in extension talks.
Via 670 The Score.
The Cubs have had preliminary discussions with infielder Nico Hoerner and outfielder Ian Happ about contract extensions, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said Monday at a season-ending press conference.
“We’ve taken the first steps,” Hoyer said when asked specifically about Hoerner and Happ. “As you guys know, we’re not going to talk about it once we do (get more in depth). But certainly there are players that we’d love to keep in a Cubs uniform for a long time. Hopefully we can work hard on those and get some across the finish line.”
First, let's compare Benintendi and Happ to show how similar they are and why their big contracts could be in the same range. We'll begin in 2017, when Happ made his MLB debut with the Cubs. Benintendi was in his first full season with the Boston Red Sox then.
2017
Benintendi: .271/.352/.424, 102 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR, 20 HR, 151 Games
Happ: .253/.328/.514, 114 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR, 24 HR, 115 Games
2018
Benintendi: .290/.366/.465, 123 wRC+, 4.9 fWAR, 16 HR, 148 Games
Happ: .233/.353/.408, 106 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR, 15 HR, 142 Games
2019
Benintendi: .266/.343/.431, 100 wRC+, 1.8 fWAR, 13 HR, 138 Games
Happ: .264/.333/.564, 126 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR, 11 HR, 58 Games
2020
Benintendi: .103/.314/.128, 42 wRC+, -0.4 fWAR, 0 HR, 14 Games
Happ: .258/.361/.505, 132 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR, 12 HR, 57 Games
2021
Benintendi: .276/.324/.442, 105 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR, 17 HR, 134 Games
Happ: .226/.323/.434, 105 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR, 25 HR, 148 Games
2022
Benintendi: .304/.373/.399, 122 wRC+, 2.8 fWAR, 5 HR, 126 Games
Happ: .271/.342/.440, 120 wRC+, 3.5 fWAR, 17 HR, 158 Games
Career
Benintendi: .279/.351/.431, 109 wRC+, 13.1 fWAR, 73 HR, 745 Games
Happ: .249/.339/.460, 114 wRC+, 10.5 fWAR, 104 HR, 678 Games
Both guys are above average defenders and each have won a gold glove award. Benintendi makes more contact and it looks like he sacrificed a lot of his power in 2022 to slap the ball around the field more often, leading to his .304 batting average. Meanwhile, Happ had whiff issues early on in his career, but he's always managed to get on base at a solid rate because of his good eye at the plate. Happ also does a lot more damage when he hits the ball, recording a .211 ISO compared to Benintendi's .152.
The point is, both players have produced solid results, they just get to those numbers differently.
So, what could an extension look like for Happ?
A big variable to consider for the Cubs is that if they cannot extend Happ this offseason, then he's going to become one of the best free agent outfielders next year. So to me, the Benintendi contract with the White Sox should be looked at as the base, and something Cubs and Happ will build off on. You also have to think that Happ and his agent will look at Seiya Suzuki's five-year, $85 million deal, and use that as another data point in negotiations with the Cubs.
In 2023, Happ is estimated to earn nearly $11 million in the final year of arbitration. Maybe a six-year, $90 million extension, that begins in 2023 could work? That's equal to Benintendi's AAV and is higher than Suzuki's overall deal. Add in incentives, a no-trade clause, whatever Happ wants if the Cubs truly believe in him and want him around for several more years. Or maybe you stretch it to $100 million over seven years that includes an option year or two, or opt-outs for Happ.
Listen, these numbers may look crazy to you now, but the free agent market can explode in a blink of an eye as we've seen so far this offseason.
If Happ puts up another solid year and he isn't locked down, then he could be in high demand with a weaker free agent class, considering a few stars may not even reach free agency next offseason.
We talked about Happ and Hoerner as well as the Cubs current situation in free agency during this week's Pinwheels And Ivy Podcast.
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