The Chicago Cubs have October baseball to look forward to this year, but there's no doubt that the front office is already planning for the offseason. That includes free agency and obviously the biggest name on the roster is Kyle Tucker, who will be a free agent after the 2025 season comes to an end. Ever since the Toronto Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. agreed to a $500 million extension back in April, speculation has run rampant in regards to Tucker's price tag and how much the Cubs will have to pay to keep him on the north side of Chicago.
Tucker, 28, seemed like a lock to secure a $450 million contract in free agency thanks to his hot start this year and some in the industry believed Tucker could challenge the $500 million mark that the Blue Jays gave Vlad Jr. However, because of Tucker's horrid slump in the second half there are now doubts on how big of a contract he can attract in free agency, which will obviously be a big storyline for Cubs' fans to follow in the winter.
ESPN's top MLB insider Jeff Passan shed some light on what people around baseball think about Tucker's free agency. The All-Star outfielder will be the No. 1 position player available, so how much will it take to sign him?
Well, Passan compared Tucker to Mookie Betts, which puts the current Cubs' right fielder in the $400 million range rather than the half billion that some thought Tucker could get earlier this year.
Via ESPN.
Tucker's best comparable might be Mookie Betts, not because of the similarities of their games but rather the level at which they produce while maintaining minuscule strikeout rates. Few players are as good at any of the three facets of the game as Tucker, let alone all three. Betts is the most obvious, and he signed a 12-year, $365 million deal that started in his age-28 season.
So, yeah, the number is going to be big -- likely in the $400 million range.
Tucker is currently slashing .270/.381/.472, with 22 home runs. He suffered a broken finger in early June that led to Tucker making mechanical changes at the plate. At first, it wasn't an issue as Tucker posted a .931 OPS entering July. However, the hand injury took its toll on Tucker as the left-handed hitter slashed .189/.325/.235, in his next 38 games. That stretch included just one home run in 163 plate appearances.
The Cubs finally gave Tucker a few days off so he could mentally reset. The finger injury was gone, but the struggles were still present, leading to Tucker showing frustration on the field, not running out a few ground balls. Since the mental reset Tucker has been crushing the ball as he's recorded a slash line of .364/.462/.727, in his last 12 games. He's hit four home runs and four doubles as Tucker finally looks like the star hitter that he was in the first half of the season.
There's no doubt that Tucker can perform at a high level. He was a top-five hitter in the National League after the month of June, but that slump may end up costing him millions in free agency. Now, Tucker is dealing with a calf injury and the Cubs are certainly hoping he'll recover quickly from the calf tightness.
So, the next question is will the Cubs actually pay up for Tucker? Passan was on the Cubs Weekly podcast in late August and although he did have the Cubs as the favorites to sign Tucker in the offseason, Passan also reminded fans why they shouldn't expect a reunion.
Via Cubs Weekly podcast.
“But I do think the Cubs are going to have a limit they’re not going to want to go past. The reason I have pause on saying ‘unequivocally, yes, they are the favorite,’ is because I’ve seen this time and again. We saw it with Alex Bregman. The Cubs should have gotten Alex Bregman in the winter. I’ve seen the Cubs have a willingness to stop, and to say ‘we are not going to go a penny over that, and you can keep pushing and keep trying and keep cajoling and you can keep telling us we’re not going to get the player, but we’re not moving.’ And one could call that either discipline or foolishness. Maybe it’s a little of both.”
I guess we'll worry about that after October.
