Roki Sasaki Will Be Posted

ESPN's Jeff Passan had the biggest scoop of the offseason thus far as the insider broke the news overnight that Japanese star Roki Sasaki will be posted by his NPB team and will then become a free agent. The exact date of when Sasaki will be made available is yet to be known, but the 23-year-old phenom will sign with an MLB team this offseason.

The Chiba Lotte Marines are posting Roki Sasaki, the 23-year-old right-hander regarded as one of the best pitchers in the world, paving the way for him to play Major League Baseball in 2025. Everything you need to know in news, free and unlocked at ESPN: https://t.co/i0B7VeY0C9

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 9, 2024

This is massive. Unlike Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who was the big Japanese free agent last offseason, Sasaki will be treated like an international free agent, meaning he will be available to sign as a minor league free agent – i.e., for International Free Agent bonus pool funds. This is the same scenario as the time Shohei Ohtani came over from Japan in 2017.

The Cubs will obviously be in the mix for Sasaki, but you always have the Dodgers looming as the huge favorites. Passan at least attempts to temper the expectation that Los Angeles will once again land another star.

Via ESPN.

Los Angeles will be linked strongly to Sasaki, but assuming he will go to the Dodgers is premature. While the presence of Sasaki’s Samurai Japan teammates Ohtani and Yamamoto in Los Angeles is advantageous, the attention they bring — and the media horde that follows them — adds a different element than other teams.

Throughout the 2024 season, MLB presidents of baseball operations and general managers were fixtures at Sasaki’s starts. Sasaki is close with right-hander Yu Darvish, whose team, the San Diego Padres, figures to be a potential landing spot. Both New York teams have extreme interest in Sasaki, though he could also opt for an organization with pedigree and experience (the Chicago Cubs), a team in an international city (the Toronto Blue Jays), one whose past success with Japanese players still resonates (Darvish started his career with the Texas Rangers) or those whose reputation for bringing the best out in players might appeal (the Tampa Bay Rays). Plenty of other franchises can — and will — make strong appeals to Sasaki once he is posted.

Once Sasaki is officially posted he'll have 45 days to negotiate a deal.

Because Sasaki doesn't come with a tremendous financial commitment the pitcher won't lock up the free agent market this winter. So, in perspective of the Cubs, they should be able to pursue whoever they want without worrying about their resource allocation for Sasaki.

This free agent pursuit will be all about team's selling the best fit because Sasaki will be limited in his initial deal. Ohtani originally had a $2.315 million signing bonus when he agreed to join the Angels.

I mean, Shōta Imanaga fell in love with Chicago and ended up signing with the Cubs. The Cubs will have a shot at Sasaki, at least as good as any other team will.

(Previous Update)

One of the most talked about players at this week's GM Meetings isn't even a free agent yet and there's no guarantee that he'll even be available this offseason, but teams are eagerly waiting to see if Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki will be posted by his NPB club. If he is, then the Cubs should be in the mix to sign the game-changing pitcher according to industry sources.

The Athletic wrote about Sasaki's unique situation as the 23-year-old is eyeing a contract with an MLB team and he wants it before the usual posting timeline that has already been agreed upon by both leagues. Sasaki's current team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, are hoping that their stud starting pitching won't become a free agent this offseason and as most things in life it goes back to money.

Via The Athletic.

Given Sasaki’s age, he would only be eligible to sign a minor-league contract under MLB’s posting rules. That potential deal would be funded through international bonus pool money. Every club’s current allotment is less than $8 million.

If Sasaki were to be posted this offseason, he’d be looking at a bonus similar to what Shohei Ohtani received when he faced the same limitations. In 2017, Ohtani chose the Los Angeles Angels after a fierce recruiting battle, signing for $2.3 million, a fraction of his eventual production and the value he generated for the West Coast franchise.

The differences between major- and minor-league contracts — and being 23 or 25 in these cases — are enormous.

Last year, the Los Angeles Dodgers signed 25-year-old starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a $325 million contract. With that came an additional cost of $50.6 million from the Dodgers to Yamamoto's NPB team as a posting fee. So yeah, the Chiba Lotte Marines obviously want Sasaki to wait until 2026 to get that giant posting fee. Meanwhile, Sasaki wants to pitch in MLB as soon as possible.

While the Dodgers remain the favorite to acquire Sasaki, whenever he does become available, the Cubs are mentioned with a few other teams who are viewed as suitors fro the right-handed pitcher.

Still, the prevailing thought in the industry is that the Dodgers loom as the favorite. Sasaki’s exact preferences, though, are not yet known. The New York Mets and Chicago Cubs are among the teams that have heavily scouted him. On Wednesday, Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said he traveled to Japan in September to watch Sasaki pitch as a way of expressing a level of interest and respect. And Stearns certainly isn’t the only powerful executive who made that gesture.

The New York Yankees and San Diego Padres are also among the groups that have extensively scouted and signed players from Asia in recent years. And teams would presumably get a chance to make their presentations to Sasaki, trying to sell him on a vision.

In recent years the Cubs have signed Japanese free agents Seiya Suzuki and Shōta Imanaga, while Yu Darvish has even helped in recruiting, offering a strong endorsement of the Cubs even after he was traded to the San Diego Padres.

Also, remember that the Cubs ended up being a finalist for Shohei Ohtani when he first came over to MLB in 2017. If Sasaki does get posted this offseason, then expect the Cubs to be in the mix and have a shot even if the Dodgers are viewed as the overwhelming favorite to sign him.

Roki Sasaki struck out nine over eight scoreless innings in Game 1 against the Fighters. pic.twitter.com/O5IsZYR5sB

— Jason Coskrey (@JCoskrey) October 12, 2024

Sasaki posted a 2.35 ERA in 111 innings pitched during the 2024 season. He struck out 129 batters, allowed a pair of home runs and recorded a 1.04 WHIP in 18 starts. The righty has a career 2.10 ERA in 394.2 innings in Japan.

With a 100 mph fastball and a devastating splitter, Sasaki profiles as a potential top-of-the-rotation starter. “He reminds me of Jacob deGrom,” one industry source said. “He’d develop into a No. 1.”

“If he was someone in the amateur draft,” one high-ranking executive said, “he’d easily be a top-five draft pick, probably better.”

Fans will find out by Dec. 15, at the very latest if Sasaki gets posted or not. That's the final date the NPB sets for any player who is posted by their club in Japan. From then, the player has a 45-day negotiating window to sign with an MLB team.