Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Toronto Blue Jays agreed on a 14-year extension worth $500 million. Obviously the two parties are over the moon after finally coming to an agreement, but there's probably one more person who was equally happy when they saw the news of the mega extension and that's Chicago Cubs star Kyle Tucker.
The 28-year-old right fielder was acquired by the Cubs in the offseason and as each day passes that Tucker's not signed longterm his price keeps going up. Following Guerrero Jr.'s extension, Tucker's contract projection is already increasing in the eyes of MLB analysts.
Back in March, The Athletic's Tim Britton wrote about six players who were set to become free agents following the 2025 season. He broke down contract projections for each, comparing them to previous free agents who had put up similar production. Britton's list included Guerrero Jr. and Tucker.
For Guerrero Jr., Britton projected a 15-year contract worth $450 million. That comes out to an AAV of $30 million. The Blue Jays slugger beat out the projection to the tune of an AAV of $35.7 million over 14 years. So, what did Britton project for Tucker?
Kyle Tucker Contract Projection
11 years, $366 million - AAV $33.3 million
But you can already tell how the Blue Jays extension is changing the cost on Tucker's upcoming deal because on Monday MLB.com reporter Mark Feinsand put a new floor on what the Cubs need to pay up to keep their star right fielder around.
Via MLB.com.
Kyle Tucker now becomes the gem of that group, and given the outfielder’s blazing start in his first year with the Cubs, it doesn’t appear that there are any contract-year concerns about the three-time All-Star. Tucker is two years older than Guerrero, but he’s a more complete player in terms of defense and baserunning, so the idea of him landing a deal worth north of $40 million per season over 10-plus years is certainly in play.
On the conservative side of the latest projection by Feinsand, the Cubs would need to offer a 10-year, $400 million deal to Tucker. At this point, that seems low for the overall value of a potential extension for Tucker and it will increase if he reaches free agency.
If we go by Britton's estimate from March and we use his Guerrero Jr. extension, Britton was off by $5.7 million AAV, let's add that difference to Tucker's initial projection: $33.3 million + $5.7 million = $39 million AAV. I think Tucker will want more years, so let's put that at 12 and at the end that takes us to a $468 million extension over 12 years.
But again, if the Cubs want to avoid a bidding war, then it's time to step up and get something done ASAP. If Kyle Tucker reaches free agency you know we're going to hear the same bullshit from ownership about putting in a good offer, but they couldn't compete with the other big-market teams.
Hey, Ricketts, you already have him on your team, get an extension done now.
Fuck Tom Ricketts if the Cubs don’t extend Kyle Tucker
— Aldo Soto (@AldoSoto21) March 30, 2025
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