By September, industry speculation suggested Kyle Tucker's regression would bring him into the Chicago Cubs' range in free agency. The 28-year-old outfielder enters free agency as the No. 1 available player and while his 2025 season was underwhelming, current projects remain quite optimistic that Tucker will indeed land a huge contract.
The Cubs are nearing a decade since signing Jason Heyward to a $184 million contract, the richest deal in franchise history. Dansby Swanson signed a seven-year, $177 million deal heading into the 2023 season and at this point of the offseason it doesn't appear as though either of those two contracts are in danger of being topped by the Cubs. That calculous includes Tucker, who many experts believe will get upwards of $460 million from someone in free agency.
That's right, if you thought that Tucker's 22 home runs, .841 OPS and second-half struggles was going to damage his value, then think again. Here are some early contract projections and predictions for Tucker in free agency.
Kyle Tucker Contract Projections
Tim Britton (The Athletic): 12 years, $460 million ($38.33 million AAV)
Jim Bowden (The Athletic): 10 years, $427 million ($42.7 million AAV)
(Baseball America): 11 years, $360 million ($32.73 million AAV)
That last figure from Baseball America is substantially lower than the other two projections and here's why I do buy the higher range. Tim Britton has done a great job coming up with free agent comps for several years at The Athletic and his breakdown of Tucker's potential deal makes a lot of sense.
Via The Athletic.
The Guerrero deal is especially helpful, as it removes a comparable bat from this winter’s market and sets a very sturdy baseline for valuing Tucker. Given how his production compares to Guerrero’s at the time of the extension, Tucker should be able to argue that a $35.7 million average annual value is his floor. But how close can Tucker get to the $40 million-plus AAVs of Soto, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani?
In Guerrero’s deal, you can see a kind of crude math: No, he’s not Soto, but his production was about two-thirds of Soto’s, and so the contract valued him at about two-thirds of Soto’s deal. In Tucker’s case, he’s been about 75 percent as valuable as Soto in the three and five years leading up to free agency. Seventy-five percent of Soto’s $51 million AAV would be just over $38 million per season. Spread that through Tucker’s age-40 season — the length Soto and Guerrero each secured — and you get a 12-year, $460 million deal.
Circling back to the Cubs, even if Tucker's market doesn't get to that level, ESPN's Jesse Rogers continues to indicate what he's been saying all year long, the Cubs won't be anywhere near the Tucker sweepstakes this winter.
Via ESPN.
What is the early word on top free agent hitters Kyle Tucker and Kyle Schwarber?
Jeff Passan: Tucker falls in that interesting bucket where he will rightly demand a contract in excess of $300 million, but the number of teams willing to pay that will limit his options. The Dodgers and Giants make sense, as do the Phillies.
Jesse Rogers: The Cubs are likely going to let Tucker walk while the Phillies haven't closed the door on a reunion with Schwarber. Chicago has more budget constraints than Philadelphia, meaning the Cubs probably don't want to tie up $35-40 million on one player.
Despite the slump during the final 2.5 months in the regular season Tucker still put up a 136 wRC+ and 4.5 fWAR in 2025, while leading the Cubs with a .377 OBP, more than 30 points better than the next best hitter.
No matter how the Cubs frame their decision on Tucker, which again seems like they'll waive goodbye, there's no doubt that he'll be tough to replace in the lineup starting in 2026. If it's not Tucker, the Cubs absolutely have to add an impact bat or they'll go back to being a mediocre club on offense.
