Pete Crow-Armstrong on Fire Since Being Disrespected

This is just coming from Cubs fans, but it would be pretty funny if Pete Crow-Armstrong did read about how his perceived future value was dropped back in May and ever since he's been on fire at the plate to spite FanGraphs and I guess specifically FanGraphs writers Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin.

After breaking out in 2022 in his first season playing in the Cubs minor league system and gaining top-prospect status across all major outlets, Crow-Armstrong began 2023 as one of the youngest players in Double-A. The center fielder had a solid start to the season, slashing .296/.330/.506, with a 123 wRC+ in 88 plate appearances. The defense was spectacular, the base running incredible and his hit tool was on full display. However, there was one aspect to PCA's offense that did raise an eyebrow and that was his 2.3 walk rate through his first 19 games.

Crow-Armstrong only walked twice through 88 plate appearances and because his lack of walks went back to the 2022 season, FanGraphs downgraded his Future Value (FV) from 60 to 55.

First, here's what baseball writers mean when they refer to an FV grade for a prospect. Via FanGraphs.

Future Value (FV) is a subjective valuation metric derived from the traditional 20-80 scouting scale (where 50 is average and each integer of 10 away from 50 represents one standard deviation) that uses WAR production to set the scale. For instance, an average regular (meaning the 15th-best guy at a given position, give or take) generally produces about 2 WAR annually, so a 50 FV prospect projects as an everyday player who will generate about that much annual WAR during his pre-free agency big league seasons.

And here's a little blurb on Pete Crow-Armstrong from that May 9th article on FanGraphs.

Lastly, two Top 100 tweaks occur here. First, we’ve slid Pete Crow-Armstrong down an FV grade compared to the offseason Top 100 because of the way his walk rates have progressed as he’s faced more advanced arms. 

Since then, at High- and Double-A, a much more aggressive approach has been exposed, with PCA running a 4% walk rate for the last year or so. The revamped swing he showed once he was healthy post-trade from New York was more top-hand driven and direct to the top of the strike zone. While his current swing is definitely better than the one from high school, it still leaves Crow-Armstrong vulnerable at the top of the zone. Most all of his balls in play so far in 2023 have been on pitches down and in, and he doesn’t cover the upper and outer thirds very well. This, in concert with a higher rate of chase, is likely to dilute Crow-Armstrong’s offensive production.

So, I don't think it was that harsh of a criticism because PCA's walk rate had been really low for a while, however you also have to consider that he moved up to a new level in 2023, and maybe he wasn't walking as much at Double-A because he was still adjusting to new pitchers.

Well, ever since he was downgraded, Pete Crow-Armstrong has made it a point to draw more walks, or at least that's what it looks like on paper.

Heading into Wednesday night's game with the Tennessee Smokies, PCA was on fire at the plate.

And then on Wednesday night, Crow-Armstrong crushed a three-run home run to add on to Tennessee's blowout win over the Rocket City Trash Pandas.

In 38 games at Double-A this season, PCA is slashing .278/.345/.513, with 8 home runs, 13 stolen bases and a 131 wRC+. Oh and by the way, he's still regarded as the best defensive center fielder, definitely in the minor leagues, and possibly among all pro players in the world.

We know the talent is there, but it's another thing to see PCA make these in-season adjustments at the plate. He's nearly tripled his walk rate in the past month since that FanGraphs article was published.