While meat of the baseball offseason is focussed on free agency, which normally starts to get rolling in December, all 30 MLB teams have to make important decisions with their arbitration eligible players in November. That obviously includes the Chicago Cubs, who have 9 players on their current 40-man roster that will have their 2024 salaries determined through the arbitration process.

MLB Trade Rumors released their annual arbitration salary projections. Check them out for all 30 teams here.

Via MLBTR.

In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player.

As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.

2024 Cubs Projected Arbitration Salaries

RHP: Codi Heuer - $785,000
INF: Nick Madrigal - $1.9 million
OF: Mike Tauchman - $2 million
RHP: Nick Burdi - $800,000
RHP: Julian Merryweather - $1.3 million
INF: Patrick Wisdom - $2.6 million
RHP: Adbert Alzolay - $2.5 million
RHP: Mark Leiter Jr. - $1.6 million
LHP: Justin Steele - $4.1 million

Obviously Coming Back

Justin Steele, Adbert Alzolay, Julian Merryweather, Nick Madrigal, Mike Tauchman

Again, these are no-brainer decisions. Justin Steele has established himself as the team's ace and was a Cy Young worthy candidate for almost the entire 2023 season. In a year that the Cubs bullpen had many question marks, Adbert Alzolay not only filled in as the closer, but he became one of the most reliable relievers in baseball throughout the summer. Julian Merryweather finally had consistency in the majors and became one of the most trusted arms in the Cubs bullpen in September.

Nick Madrigal and Mike Tauchman all have their faults, but they all can be solid bench pieces as well. Madrigal can be a backup infielder at three positions and can at least get into hot stretches with his elite contact rates. Tauchman slumped near the end of the season, but he was still a capable defender in center field and had solid OBP skills from the left side of the plate. He can be a very valuable fourth outfielder on the bench.

Possibly Non-tendered/Out-righted

Patrick Wisdon, Codi Heuer, Nick Burdi, Mark Leiter Jr.

I mean, even as someone who does recognize and values home runs a lot, I kinda fell out of liking Patrick Wisdom in 2023. Yeah, he hit 23 home runs, but Wisdom pretty much only became playable against soft-tossing lefties and he didn't make more fans with his defensive play in the corner positions either. I could definitely see the Cubs bringing him back, but getting close to $3 million for a guy who is only a platoon hitter against lefties may not work into the team's plans.

Mark Leiter Jr. was incredible for the first three months of the 2023 season, but then he was just bad. From July 1 through the end of the season, the righty posted a 4.70 ERA in 36 games. Leiter was lethal against lefties because of his nasty split pitch, but then he suddenly lost feel for it and it led to struggles in the second half.

And it's not like the Cubs have always been a huge fan of Leiter. Even after posting solid numbers to end the 2022 season, the Cubs ended up DFA'ing Leiter back in January, before he cleared waivers and began spring training off the 40-man roster.

That leads us to relievers Nick Burdi and Codi Heuer. Both pitchers are currently on the 60-day injured list and heading into the offseason the Cubs will most likely try to clear up some spots on the 40-man roster, meaning those two pitchers could be out-righted and maybe they stay in the organization on minor league deals.