More Realistic Free Agent Predictions For The Cubs

Options have been picked up, players have been bought out of their contracts, qualifying offers have been made and even though it's getting colder outside the hot stove is starting to heat up. The Chicago Cubs have already made a couple minor moves to their 40-man roster, and on Monday they also extended qualifying offers to Jake Arrieta and Wade Davis. Once again, we have more predictions to look at and this time a little more realistic for the Cubs. Last week MLB Trade Rumors had their list with a wild Yu Darvish deal and now MLB.com's Jim Duquette's has his list of the top-25 free agents and where he thinks they'll sign and for how much. The obvious need for the Cubs is pitching, both for the rotation, as Arrieta is a free agent and John Lackey is heading toward retirement, and the bullpen. Duquette's list does have one pitcher re-signing with the Cubs, but it's not Arrieta. The MLB columnist has Wade Davis coming back to the North Side in 2018.

6. Wade Davis, 32, RHP After a record-breaking 2016 free-agent class for relievers in terms of money spent, Davis will now get his turn to earn top dollar as the best closer on the market. He was virtually unflappable in Chicago, recording 32 saves with a 2.30 ERA. While his walk rate was the highest of his career (4.3 BB/9), Davis posted a strong 12.1 K/9 rate and stayed healthy for the whole season, lessening concerns after a pair of disabled-list stints in 2016. His deal this offseason should be similar to Mark Melancon's four-year, $62 million contract from a year ago. Interested teams: Cubs, Twins, Phillies, among others Duquette's prediction: Cubs

Davis, 32, only had one blown save in 2017 for the Cubs, but I think we can all agree that he wasn't as dominant as some of his numbers say. The control was bad and horrible at times, but he got away with it for most of the season, obviously only blowing one game in September. The Cubs aren't in a great position here, as they don't have a closer on their roster, so they have to sign someone. Do they think Davis can get back to his previous form? In a dream world, I'd prefer a front-loaded contract, where the majority of the money comes in the first three years. So, it mostly turns into a three-year deal, while the fourth year is whatever, at maybe less than $10 million. That's my dream world and not reality. I'm becoming more convinced that the Cubs won't be willing to make that commitment to Davis. Maybe a hometown (I know it's not his hometown) discount? We'll see. However, Duquette's second Cubs prediction does make a lot of sense and it's not the first time the name has been connected to the Cubs.

12. Alex Cobb, 30, RHP After posting a 3.66 ERA over a career-high 179 1/3 innings in 2017, Cobb enters free agency at the perfect time. The right-hander got stronger as the year progressed, recording a 3.14 ERA in his final 12 starts. With a track record of success in the AL East, look for Cobb to command a deal comparable to Lynn's.

For reference, he has Lance Lynn at five years for $80 million. The Cubs have been interested in starting pitcher Alex Cobb since at least this past spring training. The 30-year-old has spent his entire career with the Tampa Bay Rays and now there's another connection that makes him signing with the Cubs even more plausible. Jim Hickey, who was his pitching coach in Tampa Bay, is going to be the Cubs pitching coach.  As nice as Cobb's career 3.50 ERA looks there is the concern that he had Tommy John Surgery and missed all of the 2015 season. He came back in September 2016, started five games and was bad, yielding a 8.59 ERA in 22 innings. However, he did pitch well in 2017, recording a 3.66 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Yet, the 179.1 innings pitched this past year was a career high. He's never gotten to 200 innings in a season and hasn't started more than 29 games in a season either. That career high in starts also came in 2017. MLB Trade Rumors predicted his contract at four years, $48 million, which is way different than five years, $80 million that Duquette predicts. With Arrieta most likely heading elsewhere, getting a guy like Cobb or Lynn for about $14-16 million per season is fine, but again the years might the determining factor on who the Cubs end up signing. See the full list here. Who do you want the Cubs to go after and for how much?