Hell yeah, the rumors are back. And it's not that I'm happy that Kris Bryant is still being discussed in deals, but at least something interesting is happening with the Cubs. And hey, this time it actually involves the Cubs getting a star player back, so cool.
Anyway, the Nolan Arenado trade rumors have really taken off during the past month, with his name in headlines more often than Bryant. There have even been a few reports linking the Cubs in trade talks with the Rockies regarding Arenado.
Yet, at the time it was more about how the Cubs could dump some salary while still being able to get Arenado and then trade Bryant elsewhere to replenish the farm system or fill other holes on the roster while getting under the luxury tax for 2020.
And then ESPN's Jesse Rogers dropped a bombshell out of left field on Wednesday. According to him, the Cubs have talked about trading Bryant for Arenado straight up in a 1-for-1 deal with the Rockies.
What?
It has become painfully obvious that the Cubs number one priority this offseason is to get under the $208 million luxury tax payroll. Right now they're still slightly over it and have until the end of the season to get under to avoid more penalties for going over a second straight year.
So yeah, it doesn't really make sense for the Cubs to trade Bryant for Arenado in a 1-for-1 deal because yeah they'd be getting a great player in return to replace KB, but then there's that whole luxury tax thing. Bryant will make $18.6 million in 2020, while Arenado's average annual salary is $32.5 million.
I mean, there is a way this could go down, but it kind of just hurts the Cubs' overall plan at least for the immediate future. Even after adding Arenado's money, the Cubs could turn around and trade Jose Quintana or Tyler Chatwood to relieve some of the payroll. But then the whole idea of trading Bryant is that the Cubs would get at least a few, good pitching prospects that would eventually be in the rotation. You don't get that in this 1-for-1 scenario for Arenado.
But it just doesn't make sense that after going through the entire offseason of not spending on any major or even mid-tier free agents that all of a sudden they decide to say screw it, we're going over the tax anyway. Plus, if they did just say screw it, then why not work out a deal for Arenado that doesn't include Bryant and keep them both!
We're two weeks away from spring training and it appears as though the trade market is just now heating up.
UPDATE
Just got around to actually listening to Rogers' conversation about the rumored straight up trade and he claims that the Rockies could include $7 or $8 million per year for the rest of Arenado's contract. So, in terms of average annual value, if a deal gets done, Arenado's contract value on the Cubs would go from $32.5 million to let's say $24.5 million.
Yeah, Arenado still has an opt-out clause after 2021, but maybe the Cubs work something out with him to get rid of it. And then when it comes to the luxury tax for 2020, getting that number below the threshold becomes a little easier if the Rockies are kicking in money to the Cubs.
As far as the Rockies and why they'd be interested? Maybe they get convinced that by getting Bryant and then trading him again gets them the most value back?
Oh and by the way, Arenado reportedly would love to play for the Cubs.
It's still a crazy idea, but it's obvious the two teams are talking.
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