I think this speaks more to how insiders and execs around the league view the Cubs as opposed to who the team is specifically targeting in free agency, but until proven otherwise who are we to push back. At the same time, it's the middle of November, things can obviously change and maybe we'll be happily surprised. Yet, according to Jeff Passan's intel, the Cubs will once again operate in the mid-tier of the free agent starting pitching market this offseason.
In his offseason preview, Passan linked two free agent pitchers to the Cubs and they're most likely not the names fans wanted to see connected to the team. It's probably the phrasing that's most frustrating because it's another indication that the Cubs will not be targeting the top free agents this winter at any position.
As some fans have pointed out though, as highly respected as Passan is, a year ago he was way off on who the Cubs were pursuing. But anyway, here's what the ESPN insider gathered from his sources following the GM Meetings last week.
Via ESPN.
Yusei Kikuchi, left-handed starter: He's awfully popular, too, after shoving for Houston following a maligned trade from Toronto. The Astros want him back, and other teams expected to operate in the midtier pitching market -- the Cubs, Dodgers, Angels and, if they whiff on the bigger names, Blue Jays and Orioles -- could compete for the 33-year-old's services.
Nick Pivetta, right-handed starter: He almost certainly won't accept the qualifying offer to return to Boston; at least a three-year deal awaits Pivetta in free agency. Teams believe his stuff plays like a front-line starter, and whether it's the Cubs, Orioles, Atlanta Braves or others, Pivetta is looking at one of the biggest deals of the winter for a starter.
And technically, Passan labels these guys as part of the "upper-middle-tier starters" group of free agents.
Now, this is going to sound like I'm Jed Hoyer's burner, but whenever fans complain about the Cubs targeting these types of free agent starting pitchers, I look back at his track record and this is actually one area where Hoyer and the front office have excelled in.
It hasn't been perfect, but for the most part the Cubs have gotten solid value from their mid-tier free agent starters.
Marcus Stroman: 3.73 ERA, 275.1 IP, 52 G, 50 GS (3-year, $71 million contract, opted out after 2023)
Jameson Taillon: 4.03 ERA, 319.2 IP, 58 G, 57 GS (4-year, $68 million contract)
Shōta Imanaga: 2.91 ERA, 173.1 IP, 29 G, 29 GS (4-year, $53 million contract)
We all know about Imanaga's stellar debut season in MLB, but Taillon has been fantastic after stumbling in his first few months with the Cubs in 2023.
Jameson Taillon had a rough start to his Cubs career, but since last July he's been pretty damn good.
— Aldo Soto (@AldoSoto21) September 27, 2024
First 14 starts: 6.93 ERA in 63.2 IP
Last 44 games (43 starts): 3.30 ERA in 256 IP
So, maybe the Cubs believe in their formula, trust they can get enough value that justifies aiming lower in free agency and that's why they're once again looking at starters who may not be on most fans' wishlist.
There are things to like about Yusei Kikuchi and Nick Pivetta, but obviously some major flaws. Let's look at their 2024 numbers and each pitcher's three-year sample size.
Yusei Kikuchi
2024: 175.2 IP, 4.05 ERA, 42.6 GB%, 28 K%, 6 BB%, 1.28 HR/9
2022-24: 444 IP, 4.24 ERA, 41.8 GB%, 27 K%, 7.9 BB%, 1.52 HR/9
Lefty Yusei Kikuchi was traded to the Houston Astros in 2024 and the 33-year-old veteran suddenly became the best version of himself. He made 10 starts for Houston and recorded a 2.70 ERA in 60 innings, with a strikeout rate of 31.8 percent. Kikuchi held hitters to a .187 batting average and posted a 0.93 WHIP.
While the Astros appeared to unlock something extra out of Kikuchi, the left-handed starter did have a solid 2023 season with the Toronto Blue Jays. He made 32 starts in 2023, had a 3.86 ERA and threw 167.2 innings.
So, the recent track record is good for Kikuchi, but he's certainly not Max Fried, the free agent lefty Cubs fans are pining for this offseason. On the flip side, Kikuchi has five MLB seasons under his belt and overall has been average at best.
Nick Pivetta
2024: 145.2 IP, 4.14 ERA, 33.5 GB%, 28.9 K%, 6.1 BB%, 1.73 HR/9
2022-24: 468 IP, 4.27 ERA, 36.4 GB%, 27.1 K%, 8.1 BB%, 1.50 HR/9
Similar to Kikuchi, Nick Pivetta has strong strikeout numbers, keeps his walks relatively in check and overall had a fine 2024 season. But man, I just do not understand the fascination that teams apparently have for the 31-year-old righty.
Pivetta began his MLB career with the Philadelphia Phillies, struggling for the majority of his four seasons with them before joining the Boston Red Sox following the 2020 season. The righty has been better the last two years combined, posting a 4.04 ERA in 142.2 innings in 2023, and while you do like the strikeout rate, he gives up way too many home runs for my liking.
From 2023-24, Pivetta has the seventh highest HR rate among all pitchers with at least 250 innings, averaging 1.59 homers per nine innings. That's 51 home runs in Pivetta's last 288.1 IP.
Not only that, but the Red Sox extended the qualifying offer to Pivetta, who is expected to reject it. Once he does, any team who signs Pivetta besides the Red Sox, will lose a draft pick. I do not see a world where Hoyer and the Cubs value Pivetta so much that they'd be willing to give up draft capital on top of 3+ year contract to sign him.
There are two more free agent starters who Passan categorized as mid-tier options that also have a qualifying offer attached to them, Sean Manaea and Luis Severino.
Fried, along with top free agent starting pitcher Corbin Burnes, also have the QO attached to them this winter.
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