What Cody Bellinger's Pending Decision Does To Cubs' Plans

In February, Cody Bellinger signed a contract to return to the Chicago Cubs as spring training play began. The deal was worth $80 million and included options for Bellinger. He can opt out of his contract after either the 2024 or 2025 season if he chooses to do so. The 2024-25 seasons are worth $27.5 million, and the 2026 season is worth $25 million.

Before the deal was signed and completed, there was a standoff between the Cubs' front office and Bellinger's representation. Bellinger and his camp were seeking a long-term and lucrative deal. The Cubs were unwilling to go as drawn out as Bellinger and his agent, Scott Boras, were looking for. Instead, the two sides agreed on a deal that allowed Bellinger to opt out after each season if he felt his value increased.

In 2024, Bellinger did not reach the heights of his 2023 season, with some putting him in the race for MVP. But it has not been his worst season by any means, either. Bellinger is batting .266 with an OPS of .764 and 18 home runs with the Cubs this year. While the numbers don't match his expectations, he's still a top-five Cub offensively.

Defensively, his versatility has been welcoming for the Cubs as changes have occurred. With the emergence of Pete Crow-Armstrong, Bellinger has shifted to playing right field, making Saiya Suzuki a better option for designated hitting. Bellinger can also play first base in relief of Michael Busch as needed.

USA Today's Bob Nightengale believes the decision to opt-in has already been made. But there are still a dozen games left to play in 2024 and plenty of time to decide. Either way, Cody Bellinger's decision is set to shape the Cubs' future plans.

"Chicago Cubs outfielder Cody Bellinger, who’s in the first year of a three-year, $80 million contract, is fully expected to remain with the Cubs instead of opting out of his contract. He’ll be paid $27.5 million next year."

Bob Nightengale, via USA Today

If Cody Bellinger Opts In

Many believe that after a less productive season than planned, Cody Bellinger would not receive an offer more enticing than staying with the Cubs for another year and making $27.5 million. This has led to speculation that Bellinger will opt-in and stay in Chicago. That's $27.5 million added to the Cubs' payroll for 2025 and another roster spot being used.

In 2025, the MLB Competitive Tax threshold is projected to be $241 million. Anything over that will mean the Cubs will be in their second year of going over the tax. Currently, their projected payroll in 2025 is hovering at $155 million, including Bellinger's opt-in. That would give them $86 million to work with to add to their roster if they so choose.

Speaking of the roster, Bellinger adds versatility and power to their lineups. However, the Cubs also have a crowded pipeline ready to explode. Many believe prospect Owen Caissie is prepared and should be in the discussion for an opening-day roster spot. But the Cubs already have outfielders Bellinger, Ian Happ, Pete-Crow Armstrong, and Seiya Suzuki, who are all starting players. That does not include the surplus of options in the infield and what they could acquire in free agency.

If Bellinger decides to stay with the Cubs, something else will have to give for it all to make sense. Happ and Suzuki have no-trade clauses, and PCA is not going anywhere. As promising as Michael Busch has been to begin his career, it's hard to believe the Cubs would quickly move him along in a trade after just acquiring him. This would be quite the cluster, making the offseason extremely entertaining.

What An Opt-Out Does For The Cubs

Believe it or not, Cody Bellinger opting out of his contract might not be the worst thing for the Cubs. Not only would there be one more roster spot available, but it would also give them more money to spend. Still, it would not alleviate any of the uncertainty going into 2025.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic on Foul Territory said he does not expect the Cubs to re-sign Bellinger. It isn't the Cubs' decision to make. However, they could be using their overflowing abundance of homegrown talent, which is impacting Bellinger's playing time, to influence him to move on. Rosenthal is obviously more plugged in than the average fan.

Any team would take $86 million open to spend in free agency, but we know increasing that number to $114 million would make the Ricketts Family happy. It would also open up a lot of ideas to the Cubs' front office. Juan Soto may be a pipedream, even with all the money available. But the Cubs could undoubtedly add power and sure up their pitching staff, which has plagued them in seasons past.

Even without Bellinger in the mix, there are still a lot of moving parts to the Cubs and how they will shape their future. Prospects Owen Caissie, Matt Shaw, and Moises Ballesteros are chomping at the bit to make their presence known in the major leagues. With how much President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer believes in his farm system and in the players his administration has groomed, it's almost certain more than one current Cubs starting player will be on the move before 2025 begins.