The White Sox made a franchise-altering decision exactly one year ago today when they traded star pitcher Dylan Cease to the San Diego Padres in exchange for four players. Now that a year has passed, it is time to reassess the trade with a fresh perspective and see how it has aged for both sides.
Dylan Cease
Dylan Cease performed as advertised for the 2024 Padres. His trademark durability continued as he made 33 starts last season, tied for the MLB lead. He was very effective in his 189.1 innings, pitching to a respectable 3.47 ERA while striking out 224 batters. Cease's WHIP was also his personal best because of a career-low walk rate. Walks have traditionally been Cease's most significant flaw, but he was able to cut down the free passes without sacrificing his elite strikeout stuff. It was a very successful regular season for Cease, which included a no-hitter against the Washington Nationals in late July.
For as good as Cease's regular season was, the playoffs were a much different story. The Padres acquired him with the expectation that he would perform like an ace in the playoffs. It did not play out that way. He pitched in games 1 and 4 of the NLDS against the Dodgers and did not fare well in either outing. All told, Cease gave up eight runs in five innings in the series and the Padres lost both games he started. He did not step up when the lights were the brightest, and his struggles were a significant reason why the Padres lost that series.
Despite his playoff struggles, Cease did what was expected of him for the most part in his first season in San Diego. He was a top-of-the-rotation caliber pitcher in the regular season. Cease has one more season to redeem himself in the playoffs with San Diego before hitting free agency. However, if the Padres fall out of the race, he could be traded again at the deadline for prospects to reload their farm system.
Drew Thorpe
Drew Thorpe was the centerpiece of this trade from the White Sox side. He pitched to a sparkling 1.35 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 11 starts with the AA Birmingham Barons last season before getting called up to the big leagues, skipping the AAA level entirely.
Thorpe's initial MLB stint was somewhat rocky but still productive. Five of his first seven starts with the White Sox were quality starts. It looked like he had cemented himself as a quality MLB pitcher as a rookie. Unfortunately, his last two starts were both stinkers. Tests later revealed that he had a bone spur issue in his elbow, and he missed the rest of the season as a result. It is fair to assume that Thorpe was not fully healthy towards the end of his rookie year. He had surgery to address the elbow issue last September.
Thorpe suffered setbacks during his recovery and will likely not be ready for Opening Day. However, he now appears to be on the right track. Despite his rookie season being cut short, Thorpe remains a significant building block of the White Sox future pitching staff. The ultimate verdict of this trade from the White Sox side will likely come down to how good he ends up being.
Jairo Iriarte
Jairo Iriarte was the second player in the return and performed well with the AA Birmingham Barons in 2024, pitching to a 3.71 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over 23 games. He was rewarded with a September call-up but struggled in a small MLB sample because of his inability to consistently throw strikes. Those same command issues persisted for Iriarte this spring, as he pitched to a 6.23 ERA in 4.1 innings while walking five and only striking out three. He was optioned to the AAA Charlotte Knights earlier in the spring and will begin the season in the minors.
While still an intriguing pitcher one year later, Iriarte must improve his strike-throwing to be a viable MLB pitcher. The emergence of other pitchers like Sean Burke, Shane Smith, and Grant Taylor has also moved Iriarte down the organizational depth chart. The White Sox will likely give him another chance as a starting pitcher at the AAA level to begin the season. However, it is now fair to say that Iriarte could be a reliever in the future.
Samuel Zavala
Samuel Zavala, the third player in return, had a lot of prospect helium at the time of the trade. He had concluded a very productive 2023 season with the Padres Low-A affiliate and looked to be trending upwards. The White Sox challenged him by putting him with the High-A Winston-Salem Dash in 2024, despite being over three years younger than the average player at that level. The organization's aggressive assignment for him did not go as hoped.
Zavala struggled mightily last season. He hit just .187 with a .641 OPS in 111 games and struck out 104 times in 467 plate appearances. Still, there were some positives in his game. Zavala hit 15 doubles, eight home runs, and stole 14 bases while maintaining an impressive 17.8 BB%. His .234 BABIP indicates that he was unlucky as well. His stats should see positive regression in 2025 if his batted-ball luck evens out.
Zavala will likely start the 2025 season with the Dash again. While his 2024 was not as productive as hoped, there are reasons to believe he will get better. He is still only 20 years old, so it is far too early to push the panic button. Zavala should get every opportunity to prove himself over the next few years.
Steven Wilson
Steven Wilson, the final player in return, put together a couple of productive seasons in the Padres bullpen in 2022 and 2023. The hope was that he would earn a high-leverage bullpen role with the White Sox and be traded again for more prospects at the deadline.
Unfortunately, Wilson's 2024 season was plagued by injury and poor performance. He pitched to an abysmal 5.71 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over 40 relief appearances last season. His walks and hits per nine innings averages were the highest of his career, and his signature sweeper lost effectiveness. He was plagued by back and shoulder injuries last season, so it is fair to wonder if those physical issues impacted his performance.
The White Sox designated Wilson for assignment in early February, but he remained with the organization. He has pitched in five games this spring without allowing a run. It is a positive development for a White Sox bullpen that could desperately use some stability.
Dylan Cease Trade - The Final Verdict
One year later, it is safe to say that the Padres got the better end of the blockbuster Dylan Cease trade up to this point. Cease was as durable and consistent as ever with the 2024 Padres, while the players the White Sox got battled injury issues and inconsistency. However, the jury is far from out on this deal. Cease will be a free agent after the 2025 season and could end up leaving San Diego. Meanwhile, Thorpe, Iriarte, and Zavala could all still be part of the next good White Sox team. It will be a pivotal season for those three players, but the book is far from closed on this trade.
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