It's Time For The White Sox To Move Kopech Back To the Bullpen

It’s time for the White Sox to face facts. Michael Kopech is not a starter that they can depend on if they want to compete in 2024. This is not just an indictment on Kopech, it’s an indictment on the entire organization’s ability to develop players. 

Kopech came into the White Sox organization as a top pitching prospect with all the talent to develop into a star in this league. Baseball America graded his fastball as the best in the organization while he was still in Triple-A Charlotte. At one point he was considered the No. 9 overall prospect in baseball by MLB.com. 

The road hasn’t been easy for Kopech. Tommy John surgery and personal issues forced him to miss two straight seasons. The White Sox have slowly tried to build him up as a starter but it hasn’t worked. The decline has been sad. 

There have been flashes but his overall body of work in the White Sox starting rotation has left much to be desired. On Sunday against the Guardians he went five innings allowing three runs on four hits with five walks and two strikeouts. In 93 pitches only 45 were strikes. 

It marked the 14th start of the season and the eighth start in a row that Kopech has failed to make it through six innings. In his first 20 starts of the season, he is averaging just 5.1 innings a start. Kopech is struggling to go deep into games which has put extra stress on the bullpen. 

Part of the issue is that he is averse to contact this leads to strikeouts but also a high pitch count. He frequently gets ahead in the count only to begin nibbling around the corners which oftentimes results in him issuing a free pass. 

His strikeout numbers have also plummeted since leaving the bullpen. In 2021 his strikeout rate was 36.1 percent which ranked in the top three percentile in the MLB. Last season his K rate dropped to 21.3 percent and this it’s at 25 percent. He has an electric fastball that he now has to rein in as a starter to try and last multiple innings. 

Kopech still has the talent to be an effective pitcher in this league but it seems like he is better suited for the bullpen. His numbers in 2021 reflect that. He averaged 13.01 strikeouts per nine innings out of the bullpen which was the third-highest total in franchise history. Opponents expected batting average was just .185, placing Kopech in the top five percent of the league. His xERA and xwOBA were also in the top seven percent of baseball. 

Flash forward to his second season in the White Sox rotation and Koepch ranks in the bottom fourth percentile in walks. Opponents barrel percentage against him is one of the worst marks in the MLB at 14.6 percent and opponent's average exit velocity, hard hit percentage and chase rate are all rank in the bottom 20 percentile. 

Ozzie Guillen even suggested that the White Sox try to make Kopech the closer.

"I think he would be a legit one," Guillen said on the White Sox Postgame Show. "I think this guy can get the ball by this week, prepare mentally and physically to be the closer. When you a closer you have no time to think."

Kopech needed multiple mound visits in the second inning from Ethan Katz and Seby Zavala to help him get through the second inning on Sunday. Koepch was clearly frustrated after loading the bases with back-to-back walks with two outs in the inning. He then proceeded to walk in the first run of the game. If Kopech was in the back end of a bullpen, like Guillen suggested it may help him to stop overthinking on the mound.

That’s not to say he hasn’t had his moments as a starter. But overall he is far too inconsistent to be relied on as an everyday starter. His ability is being wasted, the White Sox would be wise to transition him back into the bullpen.