Kopech Expected To Pitch Most Of His 2018 Innings In Triple-A

Let’s try not to get ahead of ourselves and stem the brimming anticipation on when Michael Kopech will reach The Show. Depending on who you ask and how hawkish (see what I did there?) they are on prospect development Kopech could be up with the White Sox in mid-May or the second week in July after the risk of super-two status is washed away. But this is a more delicate process than just launching Kopech into the rotation and watching his fastball burn through the competition.

I asked Getz over a conference on Tuesday whether or not Kopech was on an innings limit this season and whether it mattered where those innings were logged.

“The majority of [his] innings, I believe will be in Charlotte,” Getz answered. “If he proves that he’s ready to take a step forward we’ll certainly have those conversations. … He’s a guy that…[has] the big fastball, very good slider…command is something that we’re focusing on, but we [have to] remember the changeup as well,” explained Getz.

Getz added that perfecting the changeup will complement Kopech’s power-fastball and be a critical accoutrement to his menu of pitches while closing with this: “The focus is more on the changeup and refining those other skills than what level he’s pitching at…” Besides the well-documented work on his changeup and command, there is an innings question that lurks beneath his meteoric rise. The 2017 season was Kopech’s first uninterrupted professional season. He threw 134 1/3 innings, up from 78 2/3 the year before between two A-affiliates for the Boston Red Sox. Before Kopech landed in the White Sox organization he suffered a few travails that limited his innings the first few seasons. He was suspended 50 games in 2015 for testing positive for Oxilofrine, a stimulant banned under the Minor League Drug Prevention and Treatment Program, and cropped his 2016 workload after breaking his hand in a locker room fracas with a teammate. That’s all water under the bridge now and Kopech has stayed on the straight and narrow so far. But the question of innings load is something teams pay very close attention to. In a 2017 article for SI.com, Tom Verducci explains his theory on increasing innings too much too fast:

“The Year-After Effect is based on common-sense training methodology: Pitchers risk injury or regression if they increase their stress level or workload too much too fast. I began my study by identifying 25-and-under major league pitchers who packed on 30 or more additional innings from their previous high; I recently amended the warning threshold to be a 30% increase. Over the previous three years, of the 20 pitchers I identified as at risk, 15 were hurt and/or pitched fewer innings in their Year After, including such promising pitchers as Jesse Hahn, Lance McCullers, James Paxton and Michel Wacha.”

Verducci explains that bodies that can handle the stress of throwing gobs of innings at an elite intensity like Noah Syndergaard might be the exception to the rule…and then Syndergaard tore his lat in 2017. And if you read far enough down in the article Reynaldo Lopez appears at the top of the list for pitchers with high-percentage increases in innings pitched. Although the White Sox didn't broadcast an innings cap on Lopez, he only threw 13 1/3 innings more than in 2016.  Kopech is a strong analog to Syndergaard and the White Sox coveted pitching prospect raised his innings-total by 42 percent in 2017. If White Sox brass stick to Verducci's 30-percent rule, Kopech could post an additional 39 innings. Yet, that seems awfully high, leapfrogging ahead of where Lopez was last season. Getz mentioned that Kopech hit the 130-innings target and it stands to reason that the White Sox would like to see him stay at or below 160 in 2018, safely under a strenuous increase in workload. Getz stopped short of putting an innings limit on Kopech for 2018, but one could sense the caution in his voice when discussing his development this season. What is disappointing for Sox fans is that given Getz’ statement on where Kopech’s innings are best served and major-league service-time rules, it seems Kopech will be a late-season call-up on a very strict innings quota.