Baseball Prospectus annual PECOTA projections, forecast another 100-loss season for the Chicago White Sox. However, it also predicts 20 more wins than last year’s total.
Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projections are considered one of the most reliable systems for forecasting player performance. Short for "Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm," PECOTA utilizes projected depth charts to estimate runs scored and allowed for each team, ultimately calculating expected win totals.
To nobody's surprise, PECOTA has the 2025 White Sox finishing last in the American League Central with 61-62 wins and 100-101 losses. The simulated win total of 61.5 is the second lowest in the MLB, behind only the Colorado Rockies. While sitting through triple-digit losses is not ideal for White Sox fans, a 20-game improvement would be significant—even if the bar was set historically low.
One of the reasons the White Sox lost 121 games was their lack of depth. Eleven-year veteran Tommy Pham told Jon Heyman during an interview last season that he has never been on a team that was actively developing people at the MLB level like the White Sox, which set the team up for some added growing pains throughout the season.
When Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, and Luis Robert Jr went down with injuries early in the year, the White Sox had very few options to replace them and the bottom fell out. This offseason, Chris Getz has made an effort to solidify the organizational depth. He has added veterans like Austin Slater, Mike Tauchman, and Josh Rojas, who will help take some of the pressure off of the younger players if they begin to struggle.
The 40-man roster has no shortage of infielders, with Brooks Baldwin, Colson Montgomery, Bryan Ramos, Lenyn Sosa, Miguel Vargas, and Rojas all expected to compete for playing time this season. The outfield features former All-Stars Andrew Benintendi, Luis Robert Jr., and a platoon of Tauchman and Slater in right field, who each have a knack for getting on base. Off the bench, the White Sox will have Dominic Fletcher, who showed flashes on the defensive end last season despite his -0.3 WAR.
While the White Sox did trade away their best player, Garrett Crochet, FanGraphs still projects that the starting rotation will be above replacement level. Some of the players that came back in the Crochet trade are also expected to contribute. Catcher Kyle Teel, and infielder Chase Meidroth are expected to be up in the majors at some point this season. Last season, the White Sox's Opening Day catcher, Martín Maldonado, finished with a -1.5 WAR. Upgrading to a potential catching duo of Kyle Teel, MLB Pipeline's 32nd-ranked prospect, and Edgar Quero, ranked 66th, should provide a significant boost to the team's offensive production.
Getz also brought in Will Venable, who was Hall of Famer Bruce Bochy’s right-hand man with the Texas Rangers. Having Venable at the helm should drastically improve the team's accountability and preparation regularly. Winning only 41 games will be hard to repeat from the simple fact that the White Sox were snake-bitten. Their 36-blown saves were the most in the MLB. While their bullpen still has plenty of question marks it is hard to see the White Sox running into as much bad luck as they did last season.
Is this team going to be competing for a division title anytime soon? Probably not. But at the very least, the 2025 White Sox should be a much more digestible product on the field than the 2024 squad.
