Shane Smith has been one of the most compelling storylines of the White Sox season. The team’s top pick in the Rule 5 Draft looked like a potential All-Star, posting a 2.37 ERA and racking up 64 strikeouts over his first 13 starts. Even more impressive—he didn’t allow more than three earned runs in any of those outings.
However, Smith has struggled recently, giving up 10 earned runs over his last 6.1 innings across two starts. The 25-year-old was tagged for five earned runs and pulled after just two innings in his last outing against the Diamondbacks on June 23, raising his ERA to 3.38 on the season.
Smith has struggled to go deep into games, only making it through six innings in four of his 15 starts.
While the right-hander has been dominant for much of the season, he's shown signs of fatigue as games progress. His average fastball velocity holds steady around 92 mph through the first three innings but begins to dip after the fourth. That decline has come with results: Smith owns a 7.20 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP in the sixth inning—both significantly higher than his numbers through the first five frames.
The White Sox are taking a cautious approach with Smith. With 74.2 innings under his belt this season, he is inching closer to his career high of 94.2 innings he threw in the Brewers' farm system last season.
White Sox general manager Chris Getz told MLB.com last week that the team has been closely monitoring Smith’s innings and pitch quality. He added that the additions of veteran starters Adrian Houser and Aaron Civale were intended, in part, to give young arms like Smith a breather—and an opportunity to learn from more experienced pitchers.
The White Sox have made it clear they're willing to get creative to protect their young arms. They lead the majors in the use of openers this season and kept Garrett Crochet on a strict innings limit during the second half of last season.
Getz added that he doesn’t have any plans to shut down any of his starters, and has floated the idea of going to a six-man rotation.
While Smith may have hurt his All-Star chances with his last couple of starts, there is still plenty to be optimistic about. Opponents are barreling up just 6.1% of their batted balls against him—one of the best marks in baseball—and his changeup ranks in the 90th percentile for run value.
If Smith can regain his early-season form and continue to build stamina, he remains one of the brightest pieces of a rebuilding White Sox rotation. His pitch metrics and poise on the mound have already proven he belongs at the big-league level. With the White Sox carefully managing his workload, Smith still has the potential to finish the season strong and stake his claim as a long-term fixture in the South Side starting staff.
