Something Is Wrong With Dylan Cease

Dylan Cease does not look right. On Monday, he got lit up by a Kansas City Royals lineup that has the second-worst record in baseball, raising his ERA to 5.58 on the season. These are not exactly the type of numbers you would expect eight starts into the season from the 2022 Cy Young runner-up. 

In five innings, the Royals tagged him for nine hits and seven earned runs. Typically when Cease has gotten into trouble, it is because of command issues. But that wasn't the case at Kauffman Stadium on Monday night. Cease only walked one and was constantly ahead in the count but struggled to put hitters away despite his six strikeouts. 

On five separate occasions, he had two strikes on a Royals hitter and allowed a hit or a run at the end of the at-bat. 

Bottom 1st

•  1-2 count: Bobby Witt Jr single 
• 0-2 count: Salvador Perez sac fly

Bottom 3rd 

• 0-2 count: Jackie Bradley Jr. single 

Bottom 4th 

• 1-2 count: Salvador Perez single
• 2-2 count: MJ Melendez home run

Bottom 5th

• 0-2 count: Jackie Bradley Jr double

"We accomplished some of the things we wanted to get accomplished, which was to get ahead in the count," White Sox manager Pedro Grifol said after suffering a 12-5 drubbing against his former team. "But when we got ahead in the count, we just couldn't put them away. They got about seven hits with two strikes; three extra-base hits, including a homer and a couple of doubles. That was the game, right there."

Part of the issue was Cease was throwing more fastballs than he usually does with two strikes. That is despite having one of the best sliders in baseball. The numbers back it up. 

In 2022, Ceases when Cease threw his slider, he produced a -36 Run Value, 37.5 strikeout rate, and 43.3 whiff rate. Opponents also batted just .128 off of it.

It comes in at  87.2 mph with a better-than-average vertical drop, which makes it virtually unhittable when paired next to his 97 mph fastball. However, through four innings, he threw his slider just 35 percent of the time. 

Cease is also throwing it less on the season. In 2022 he used it 42.9 percent. This season, his slider usage has dropped to just 40.5 percent. 

MLB hitters are the best in the world and are constantly making adjustments, so Cease taking regressing a little from his historic 2022 season was to be expected. But so far this season, he has fallen off a cliff. His velocity is down slightly across the board, but it isn't significant enough to justify the results he has been getting. 

“I was throwing in the zone much better. Just working through some things right now, but I think it’s close,” Cease said. “I need to kind of hunker down with my slider. I’ve been backing them up and not getting the consistency that I need. And it really comes down to executing. I feel like I’m on a good track right now, we’ve made some good improvements the last 10 days or so. We’ve had a lot of focused work. Just got to keep feeling the process. The results are disappointing.”

He did produce six strikeouts, and 12 swinging strikes on Tuesday, which shows his stuff is still effective. However, he is carrying an 8.25 ERA over his last five starts. Maybe he is tipping pitches, struggling with the new rule changes, or confidence. But whatever it is, it's clear that something is wrong.