Luis Robert Jr. looked primed for a monster 2024 season following a career year in 2023 in which he stayed healthy, hit 38 home runs, stole 20 bases, and was 30% better than the league-average hitter. Unfortunately, his 2024 was anything but a monster year. Robert Jr. was so disappointing this past season that massive concerns now surround him. How the White Sox should proceed with him is one of the team's main questions this offseason.
Robert Jr.'s Awful 2024 Season
Robert Jr. was awful in 2024. There is no debating that. His season was essentially derailed before it even started, as he suffered a significant hip flexor injury in just the seventh game of the season and missed almost exactly two months as a result. Once he returned, he was far from the same player he was in 2023. He never found his footing following the injury and his stats fell off a cliff. He hit just .224 with a .657 OPS and struck out 141 times in 425 plate appearances in 2024. It was a nightmare season that both Robert Jr. and White Sox fans would like to forget.
Dive Into The Numbers
It is easy to see why Robert Jr. struggled so badly this past season. Per Baseball Savant, his K% was the highest of his career, while his swing % and first pitch swing % were career lows. Robert Jr.'s 2024 average exit velocity, whiff %, and hard hit % were also the lowest since his 2020 rookie season. He swung less than ever yet struck out at a higher rate. Strikeouts have always been Robert Jr.'s weakness throughout his MLB career, but at least he did damage when he made contact in the past. That was not the case in 2024.
No Lineup Protection
There are several potential explanations for Robert Jr.'s 2024 struggles. The first is simply the lack of talent around him. Robert Jr. had virtually no lineup protection at all, and it is only natural for star players to press and try to do too much when they feel like they have to carry a lineup single-handedly. Robert Jr. had at least somewhat respectable hitters around him in the past. That was not the case in 2024, as the White Sox offense was by far the worst in baseball.
Swirling Trade Rumors
Robert Jr.'s place in trade talks throughout the season is another potential factor in his poor 2024 campaign. While he did not get traded, he acknowledged that he knew of the trade rumors surrounding him. In June, he said that he would like to stay with the White Sox and that going to another team would be like "starting from scratch." It is logical to conclude that the swirling trade rumors and instability took a toll on his performance.
The Robert Jr. Dilemma
The dilemma in this situation is that the clock is starting to tick on Robert Jr.'s time in Chicago. While he still has potentially three years of team control remaining, only 2025 is guaranteed. He has $20 million team options for 2026 and 2027 but will have to turn it around significantly to justify the team picking those up. The White Sox situation as a team is also a factor. It will likely take several years before they are relevant again. Robert Jr.'s peak years and the team's timeline do not align anymore. The question becomes, how should the organization handle him moving forward?
Option #1 - Trade Robert Jr. This Offseason
The first option is to trade Robert Jr. this offseason. Despite coming off by far the worst season of his career, nobody can deny Robert Jr.'s talent. He offers a rare combination of power, speed, and Gold Glove caliber defense that few other players have. For that reason alone, teams will still have interest in him this winter. Even in a terrible 2024 season, he was still elite in categories like bat speed, sprint speed, and range, per Baseball Savant. He was also far above average in average exit velocity and barrel %.
Team Friendly Contract
Robert Jr's contract is another appealing aspect of his profile. Should both of his team options get picked up, he is owed just $55 million total over the next three seasons. That total is pennies relative to his production when he is right. Opposing teams must also realize how much of a trainwreck the 2024 White Sox were. Robert Jr. would undoubtedly benefit from a change of scenery and landing in a more talented lineup.
Potentially Selling Low
The problem with trading Robert Jr. this offseason is that his value is at an all-time low. Trading him last offseason coming off of a career year was the move to make in hindsight. While the White Sox could likely still receive something of value for Robert Jr. should they trade him this winter, they would be trading him at the absolute worst time from a value perspective.
Option #2 - Keep Robert Jr. For Now
The other option is holding onto him for now and letting him begin the 2025 season as a member of the White Sox. Going this route would allow Robert Jr. to start a new season with a clean slate and a fresh beginning. This option does have some risks. He could have another rough season or get injured again, lowering his trade value even more. However, given his history, 2024 looks like an outlier for him. Coming into 2025 with a clean perspective and bill of health could be what he needs to return to the elite player he once was.
Conclusion
Unfortunately, Luis Robert Jr.'s days as the centerpiece of the White Sox future are likely over. He will only be on the south side for three more years at the very most and is also the team's second most valuable trade chip after Garrett Crochet. As a result, the team must decide whether to trade him now at his lowest value to date or hold and hope he increases his value in the first half of next season. To me, it is a no-brainer. Luis Robert Jr. is far too talented to trade for pennies on the dollar. He should be patrolling center field for the White Sox on Opening Day against the Angels.
