The White Sox are continuing their trend of challenging their top prospects. Left-handed pitcher Noah Schultz, the organization’s #1 prospect, has reportedly been promoted from Double-A to Triple-A, per Elijah Evans of FutureSox.
While this is an exciting development in that Schultz is now one step closer to the big leagues, the timing of this promotion is interesting given the season he is having. It raises potential questions about whether this is the right decision for his long-term development.
White Sox Aggressive Prospect Development
The White Sox have aggressively promoted many top prospects over the years. The most recent example is Grant Taylor, Schultz’s former Double-A teammate. The organization promoted Taylor from Birmingham straight to Chicago just a few days ago, having him skip the Triple-A level entirely.
Schultz's Statistical Regression This Season
There is one notable difference between Taylor and Schultz so far in 2025. Taylor dominated the Double-A level, and it was clear that he needed to be challenged. The same cannot be said for Schultz. He has actually taken a significant step back statistically this season compared to last year at the same level.
Schultz’s Double-A stats.
ERA: 1.48 (2024) vs. 3.34 (2025)
WHIP: 1.02 (2024) vs. 1.59 (2025)
AVG: .202 (2024) vs. .257 (2025)
K/9: 10.77 (2024) vs. 9.21 (2025)
K%: 29.4% (2024) vs. 23.2% (2025)
BB/9: 2.51 (2024) vs. 5.72 (2025)
BB%: 6.9% (2024) vs. 14.4% (2025)
FIP: 2.57 (2024) vs. 3.83 (2025)
In simple terms, Schultz has trended in the wrong direction in several key categories from last season to now. He has become substantially more hittable, with his walk rate skyrocketing. His strikeout rate has also decreased. His 3.34 ERA and 9.2 K/9 on the season are still respectable, as is his 1.31 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 20.2 innings over his last four starts. But the overall trends are concerning.
Context Behind The Numbers
For Schultz specifically, the raw stats do not tell the whole story. There are a couple of factors that one must consider. Most notable is that the White Sox are allowing him to pitch deeper into games this season. In 2023 and 2024, the organization had him under strict innings and pitch limits to protect him. He never exceeded more than four innings in any appearance in his first two professional seasons.
This season, Schultz has regularly gone deeper into games, logging at least five innings in eight starts and surpassing 90 pitches three times. He is pitching much deeper into games, facing the same hitters multiple times. His stamina is being tested to a level it never has before, which could explain why his stuff has not been as crisp and dominant as it was in previous years.
The umpires also play a role. They are minor league umpires for a reason. In Schultz’s last start alone, there were at least two instances in which he should have had a hitter struck out according to the strike zone box, but he ended up walking the batter. Inconsistent umpiring is a common theme throughout the minors. His walk problems might be exaggerated as a result.
Big Test Ahead
For better or worse, going to Triple-A will be a substantial test for Schultz. Not only will he be well over five years younger than the average Triple-A player, but he will also be pitching in an extremely hitter-friendly league. The average ERA in the International League is an elevated 4.67 with a 1.44 WHIP. Teams are averaging nearly five runs a game in that league. It will be a level of competition Schultz has never seen up to this point.
Final Word
All this isn’t to say that the White Sox promoting Noah Schultz to Triple-A right now is unequivocally the wrong decision for his long-term development. One could argue that pushing him is a good thing. He is one of the best pitching prospects in MLB for a reason. He has dominated every league he has ever pitched in, and the White Sox organization is challenging him even more because of this promotion. Exposing him to the highest level of the minors and reuniting him with Sergio Santos, his manager in Birmingham last season, could be a good learning experience for him. We will have to wait and see if this ultimately is the right decision.
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