Underrated Trade Chip The White Sox Should Flip Before Deadline

The White Sox have plenty of names they can sell during the trade deadline but one of the more intriguing trade chips is Keynan Middleton. 

Middleton is having a fine season, posting a 3.00 ERA with 43 strikeouts, and two saves in 33 innings of work. The 29-year-old right-hander also owns a career-high strikeout rate of 33.1 percent, which places him inside the top nine percentile in all of baseball. 

His advanced stats look even better. Middleton is in the 97th percentile in whiff rate, 93rd in chase rate, 87th in opponent average exit velocity, 84th in fastball spin, and 82nd in fastball velocity. He also ranks in the top half of the league in hard hit percentage, expected batting average, and expected slugging percentage. 

The White Sox would be wise to strike while the iron is hot and trade him while his stock is high. Relief pitchers' performances can fluctuate from year to year. Middleton’s dominant season seemingly came out of nowhere. While the Angels fans may be familiar with Middleton, most of the league is not.  

The Angels drafted Middleton in the third round of the 2013 Amateur Draft out of Lane Community College (Eugene, OR). He made his MLB debut in 2017. The early returns were positive. In 64 appearances (58.1 innings), Middleton posted a 3.86 ERA and averaged a career-high 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings.

In 2018, he established himself as a quality relief option out of the Angels bullpen. In his first 16 games, he had a 2.04 ERA with a 1.302 WHIP. Unfortunately, his 2018 campaign was cut short due to Tommy John surgery midway through the year. The surgery kept him out of commission for over a year. 

Middleton returned to the mound in 2019 and had a 1.17 ERA in 7.2 innings of work. However, he struggled to refind his presurgery form the following season. The righty got lit up to the tune of a 5.25 ERA, with opponents hitting .273 off him. The Angels had seen enough and non-tendered him that offseason. 

The Seattle Mariners decided to take a flier on him, but their gamble did not pay off. Middleton posted a 4.94 ERA in 32 appearances in 2021. During the offseason, he settled for a minor league deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks. 

He tossed 17 innings in Triple-A Reno, putting up a 2.12 ERA which was enough to earn him a promotion to the big league club. However, his struggles continued once he reached Arizona. Middleton had a 5.29 ERA in 18 games. This came despite the fact that he reduced his walk rate to 4.3% after being much higher in previous seasons. His struggles resulted from lackluster strikeouts and ground ball rates. Opponents also had a hard-hit percentage of 38 and tagged him for five home runs, matching his total from the four previous seasons combined.

The Diamondback’s front office had seen enough and cut ties with him in November, making him a free agent again. The White Sox decided to pick him up off the scrap heap with the hopes that Ethan Katz can rekindle some of his pre-surgery stuff. It appears Katz did just that. 

At the time the signing didn’t garner much attention. With Liam Hendriks, Kendall Graveman, Joe Kelly, and Jake Diekman already on the roster it was unclear if he would even make the team. 

While his turnaround this season is impressive there are some serious concerns as to whether he can sustain this level of play. For starters, he walks too many batters. This season he owns a 9.4 percent walk rate which places him in the bottom half of the league. 

Walks have always been an issue. His career average walk rate is ten percent. Middleton also allows opponents to barrel him up, which is surprising considering how low his opponent's average exit velocity is against him, but noteworthy nonetheless. Another knock is the 1.41 HR/9 innings he has allowed. 

His recent form could also be cause for concern. In his past 15 outings, he owns a 5.02 ERA with 13 hits allowed and six walks. That’s not to take away from how good Middleton has been this season. He has been excellent. But he doesn’t have a proven track record. 

He will turn 30 in September. If the White Sox are indeed sellers before the August 1st trade deadline, Middleton should be a name they try to flip.