One of the most divisive draft strategies floating around for the past few years is Zero RB Theory. The idea is that running backs have higher injury and bust rates than their wide receiver counterparts, so the savvy drafter passes on the position for at least five rounds. Instead choosing to accumulate valuable high-upside depth at other skill positions. With the league becoming more pass happy, the risk-reward ratio of early-round running backs just does not compute. At least not according to Zero RB Theory proponents.
If you’ve spent much time following fantasy content this off-season you have probably heard that Zero RB Theory is actually a terrible fallacy, the province of bearded hipsters that know more about upcycled flannel and mustache wax than football. You’ve likely heard that you absolutely must take a running back in the first few rounds of your draft. But is that true?
PAST SEASONS:
Let's jump in the Wayback Machine and take a quick trip through space-time back to 2016. After years worth of wide receiver dominated seasons, 2016 turned out to be the year of the running back. In fact, nine running backs scored 200 or more fantasy points in the 2016 season. That was quite the turnaround from 2015 when only two backs managed the feat.
Then 2017 rolled around and the running back Renaissance continued. A total of seven backs put up 200 or more points last year. David Johnson was injured, Zeke was suspended and Howard got John Fox'd. Those three guys should have made the total 10.
ZERO RB THIS YEAR:
So Zero RB Theory is garbage, right? Not necessarily. Last year was an incredible year for the running back position in fantasy. When quarterbacks are removed from the picture for the 2017 season, only 11 of the top 24 players in fantasy were running backs. Of those 11 players, five of them were taken outside of the first two or three rounds. The running back position offered plenty of value. So much value, in fact, that Alvin Kamara was a waiver wire pick up in most leagues.
Unsurprisingly, early ADP shows people are going absolutely crazy at the running back position this year. Thus far, eight of the top 12 picks in drafts this year are running backs. There is a very good chance that most of the people in your league will be following this trend and taking running backs early and often. Your opponents going running back early means they will have to take receivers in the mid-rounds where 40% of top backs went last season. This is very good news for the conscientious drafter.
Now is the time to zig while the rest of your league zags. Zero RB Theory, or a modified version of it, won’t work in every situation. No strategy is all-encompassing. But it can help you win this year. By using this strategy you will stockpile great WR and TE weapons in the early rounds and grab great running back value in the mid rounds. High upside guys like Royce Freeman, Ronald Jones and Tarik Cohen. That is how you win a league.
