The Oakland Raiders trading Derek Carr has been an idea that has floated around some circles early in the off-season. With the Raiders looking to take the next step, one thought is to move on from Carr so that Head Coach Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock can bring in their own quarterback.
On the outside, trading Carr seems like a difficult endeavor. The Raiders' QB carries a cap hit of around $20 million over the next four seasons. Any team taking him on would have to be willing to pay that kind of money.
But even more difficult than the financials is his potential replacement. Dwayne Haskins or Daniel Jones seem like potential options, however, Oakland would likely have to use an early first round pick on them. The free agent QB class is headlined by players such as Nick Foles and Teddy Bridgewater who are arguably both worse than Carr.
If the Raiders were to trade Carr, they would need a solid backup plan in place. Yet, despite those potential difficulties, one radio personality feels that a Carr deal could be inevitable.
Recently,
Jason Smith of The Jason Smith Show on Fox Sports Radio predicted that the New York Giants would trade for Carr.
In his argument, Smith says:
"There are no quarterbacks available. he will be the best of the best that's out there.You know jon gruden wants to start over, he has a better idea of who he wants as his quarterback. derek carr is going to be the guy that the giants say, "Ok, you're our quarterback for the next couple of years." There's not a lot of franchise guys out there, (Carr) is what they're going to do."
Smith brings up a lot of valid points as to why the Giants should trade for Carr. If they were serious about contending, Carr could make sense. But looking at both sides of the coin, does a Carr to New York trade truly make sense?
Best Quarterback Available (Free Agency)
Smith's biggest argument for the Giants attempting to deal for Carr, is that there are no better quarterbacks that will be available. To that point, Smith could be right.
Despite a down year in 2018, Carr threw for 4,049 yards and a 19-10 TD/INT ratio. He was fifth in the league with a 68.9 completion percentage.
It's important to note that he had three straight Pro Bowl appearances prior to this season and lost his best weapon in Amari Cooper. With another year of Gruden's offense under his belt, and hopefully a stronger cast of weapons, there's a chance Carr has a major bounce back in 2019.
Looking at the free agent class, the best available quarterbacks are the aforementioned Foles, Bridgewater and perhaps Tyrod Taylor. Players like Josh McCown and Ryan Fitzpatrick are available, but at this stage they are more of a backup-type rather than a true starter.
Foles has looked fantastic over the past two seasons, including his surprising Super Bowl MVP nod. However, he has never started 16 games in his career. He had a fantastic 2013 in which he was voted to the Pro Bowl on the back of a 2,891 yard and 27/2 TD/INT campaign. However, the only other season he started more than 10 games, he threw for 2,052 yards and a 7/10 TD/INT ratio. He is likely to get a contract very similar to Carr's after leading the Eagles in their Super Bowl win. However, he hasn't been as consistent or hold as much potential as Carr. Would a "rebuilding" Raiders or Giants team be willing to pay $20 million for a 30-year old QB who has made nine starts since 2016?
Bridgewater has been recognized as a potential starter ever since he departure from the Vikings. However, he was beaten by Sam Darnold for the starting job in New York and then functioned as Drew Brees' backup during the entire 2018 season. In his only start of the season, Bridgewater completed 14-22 passes for 118 yards and a 1/1 TD/INT ratio. Bridgewater has shown potential in the past and had a Pro Bowl season in 2015. However, that year he threw for just 3,321 yards and a 14/9 TD/INT ratio. Carr has surpassed 14 TDs every season and has surpassed 3,321 yards in all but his rookie year. Bridgewater is younger at just 26, but he hasn't been the same QB since suffering his brutal injury. He's more of a wildcard than a surefire starter at this stage.
Taylor has more starting experience than both Foles and Bridgewater. He has shown some strides in the past and even helped lead a questionable Bills team to the playoffs in 2017. However, given the starting role over Baker Mayfield to start the 2018 season, Taylor showed how low his floor could be. In four games and three starts, Taylor completed 42 passes for 473 yards and a 2/2 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 126 yards and an additional score. Turning just 30, there is a chance Taylor is given an opportunity to start again. However, as the Raiders and Giants look to build from the ground up, he simply doesn't have as much potential as Carr.
Overall, Smith's claim that Carr is the best available quarterback remains true when it comes to free agents. While players like Foles and Bridgewater might earn starting opportunities, neither offer the same track record or potential that Carr possesses.
Best Quarterback Available (Draft)
While Carr seems undoubtedly better than any other starting caliber quarterback on the free agent market, the 2019 draft class gets a little bit trickier. Of the current players who have declared for the draft, Ohio State's Dwayne Haskins, Duke's Daniel Jones and Missouri's Drew Lock have all been looked at st first round talents.
Haskins is considered the best quarterback in this year's class. Despite only having 22 games of starting experience, the Ohio State product has completed 70% of his passes for 5,396 yards and a 54/9 TD/INT ratio. He was named the 2018 Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year.
Recently he was praised by Bleacher Report's Matt Miller for having, "pocket poise, accuracy outside the hashes and arm talent all over the field."
In drafting Haskins the Raiders would get a brand new project to build around. He has made flashy plays and has shown plenty of arm strentgh to succeed. That being said, only having 22 games of experience can be tricky.
Chicago Bears' quarterback Mitchell Trubisky had just 13 games of experience prior to being drafted second overall in the 2017 NFL Draft. He has shown strides, but has been inconsistent during his time in Chicago. While Haskins may ultimately posses more potential than Carr, the Raiders would be taking a risk.
Jones was a late bloomer as a prospect, but is now firmly considered a first round talent. During his four years at Duke, Jones completed 59.9% of his passes for 8,201 yards and a 52/29 TD/INT ratio.
Trevor Sikkema of the Draft Network praises Jones' touch, deep ball accuracy and footwork.
Unlike Haskins, Jones enters the NFL Draft with an impressive 36 games of experience. That being said, he doesn't hold nearly the same amount of intangibles that Haskins does. Jones should be one of the first few quarterbacks off of the board and has shown at times how explosive he could truly be. But like Haskins, he would be a risk for both the Raiders and Giants as Jones has yet to be superbly hyped up as first round quarterbacks normally are.
Lock is an interesting QB as some have him as the number two passer in the class while others have him much lower. During his time at Missouri, Lock completed 56.9% of his passes for 12,193 yards and a 99/39 TD/INT ratio. Senior NFL Draft Analyst Charlie Campbell, who has Lock as his number two overall quarterback,
writes that Lock has a strong arm and has been compared to both Jay Cutler and Eli Manning.
Another pro that Lock has been compared to, is the current Raiders' quarterback.
https://twitter.com/dpbrugler/status/1043524619045687296
Now there's always a chance that Lock ends up being better than Carr, however, taking him over the established veteran could be a major risk. If Lock's ceiling is Carr, and Carr's floor is Carr, doesn't the veteran make more sense to lead the team.
Overall, any of these quarterbacks could end up being better than Derek Carr. All have potential that can far surpass that of Carr's. But as we have seen with rookie quarterbacks, there are no guarantees. Sometimes you get a Patrick Mahomes, other times you get a Blaine Gabbert. The Raiders and Giants may view Carr as the superb option as they know exactly what they're going to get.
Why It Makes Sense For the Giants
For New York, adding Carr shows that they are serious about contending in short order. Eli Manning has proven time and time again that he isn't able to lead this team to the playoffs in this stage of his career. With explosive running back Saquon Barkley already in tow, adding a competent passer in Carr could speed up the Giants return to relevancy.
The last two games of the 2018 regular season saw the G-Men lose by just one point to both the Colts and Cowboys, two playoff teams. Barkley was the second leading rusher in the NFL at 1,307 yards. The team overall finished 17th in total offense. While the defense still needs some help, there are building blocks to build around.
If the Giants are able to land a stud defender at four and then trade for Carr, they are beginning to have the makings of a team that could compete in the NFC East. New York has around $32 million available in cap space, meaning they would be able to take on Carr's contract with room to spare.
For the Giants, adding Carr would prove Smith's point. They clearly feel that he is the best available quarterback on the market. If that fact holds true and the team does decide to move on from Manning in 2019, then from their point of view a deal for the current Oakland Raiders' quarterback makes total sense.
Why It Makes Sense For the Raiders
While the Giants point of view is pretty cut and dry, the Raiders side becomes a bit more difficult. Carr is fully entrenched as their starter and while the current regime didn't sign him to an extension, his contract makes him difficult to move. That being said, there are more than enough reasons for Oakland to move on from Carr this off season.
Gruden, who is known for scouting quarterbacks, might want to find his own passer to build around. While he has talked up Carr in the past, he may not be the "perfect" quarterback for Gruden's system. As Gruden and Mayock look to rebuild, finding their own quarterback who they could mold into the face of the franchise may be a main topic of discussion.
Furthermore, it has become no secret that having a quarterback on a rookie deal is the key to success in the NFL. Of the 12 teams in the 2018 playoffs, six have quarterbacks on rookie deals. Having a player like Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson not only improves your football team, but it helps it financially.
Rather than spending 20+ million on your QB, you are able to spend elsewhere. For example, with the Chicago Bears having Mitchell Trubisky on a rookie deal, they were able to trade and sign former Raiders defensive end/linebacker Kahlil Mack to a $141 million deal.
For the Raiders, having a Haskins or Jones or Lock would allow them to instill a new franchise quarterback, one that Gruden handpicked, while being able to use their cap space in other areas. If Oakland's front office feel that that is the better way to build their franchise, Carr could be on the move.
Overall
Smith was not doing any actual reporting when he stated Carr to the Giants. However, he seemed pretty adamant in his prediction.
Even CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora tweeted it was a possibility earlier in the season.
If the Raiders truly feel that Carr isn't the answer at QB, the Giants would certainly be one of the top teams to land him. Adding the former Fresno State Bulldog gives New York a true franchise quarterback to build around and a partner for Barkley in the backfield. Carr shined when he had Amari Cooper, so being in an offense with Odell Beckham Jr. can perhaps be the spark he needs.
For Oakland, moving Carr means they are going in an entirely different direction at QB. Whether it be through the draft or free agency, the Raiders may choose to hit the reset button completely as they go into their first year of the rebuild. That being said, they must be fully sure whoever replaces Carr is a truly better option than the three-time Pro Bowler.
Overall, the Carr to Giants rumors aren't going away anytime soon and will continue all the way up until the 2019 Trade Deadline. However, for radio host Jason Smith, it already seems like a done deal.
