Game of Inches: ND VS MICH VS WEATHER

Football on all levels is often described as a game of inches. The amount of close calls or “bang-bang” plays that ultimately decide the outcome of a game never ceases to amaze me. Notre Dame and Michigan, perhaps due to the nature in which they win, always seem to make things more interesting than they need to be. For instance, if quarterback Shea Patterson’s pass last week against Penn State was off by an inch in either direction, well, it probably still would have been dropped – tough break. But with Notre Dame and Michigan both being AP TOP 20 for this showdown, the storyline that has now caught my eye is the weather.

Heavy Rain in Forecast

At this point of the week, analysts have already sized up Michigan’s talents versus that of Notre Dame. Head coach Brian Kelly has already stated that we will return starting running back Jafar Armstrong, and defensive back Shaun Crawford. What has gone under the radar, figuratively speaking, is the weather report for Ann Arbor, MI tomorrow.

According to The Weather Channel’s website there is a 100% chance of rain. The report has a 90% chance of rain starting at 4:00 PM ET, with rain continuing to fall through midnight.

As if the game of inches on the field was not enough, the report expects as much as two inches of rainfall

Rain Dance

In a persistent rain, it is hard to expect that either offense will have much success through the air. If this is the narrative that plays out, who does this favor? Notre Dame has shown inconsistency running the ball at times, but so has Michigan. Notre Dame’s defense has been porous against the run at times; but low and behold – Michigan has too. I predict the game of this "nature" comes down to three major factors.

Turnovers

Notre Dame has averaged 1.67 turnovers per game and is +10 this year in turnover margin, first among power five schools. This is largely attributed to the offense’s ability to protect the football, and our defensive ability to force timely turnovers to boost the offense. Michigan hasn’t shown the same level of responsibility when it comes to taking care of the football. They are tied for 84th with a -0.29 turnover average, which is a -2 margin. The obvious edge here goes to Notre Dame – but factor in the weather and this glaring statistic becomes paramount to winning.

Discipline Factor

When it comes to penalty yards per game, Notre Dame and Michigan both appear to be disciplined teams. I take exception to the overall number in this case – Michigan only has seven more penalties, but they have played one more game than the Irish. Even so, they are both around six and a half penalties per game. Penalties are drive killers – in a game of inches, to give away over 40 yards a game as both of these teams have, is a recipe for failure. My concern with the Irish is they are going on the road for the first time since playing Georgia on September 21. I was shocked to see they have not been on the road in over a month as well - they had consecutive home games against Virginia, Bowling Green & USC with a bye week sprinkled in. Playing at the Big House is going to present similar challenges as the fans in Athens, GA did. The Irish committed 12 penalties for 85 yards in a game that they only lost by six points. Again – now we add the fact they will be playing in a damn monsoon and I get a little uneasy about the match up. Michigan has home field advantage and following their eight penalty performance on the road last week, I think they have an edge here.

Rushing Offense VS Rushing Defense

Something has to give, right? I mentioned the expectation would be both teams want to establish the run. Notre Dame on the season is averaging a healthy 5.40 yards per rush and 189 yards per game. Meanwhile, Michigan’s defense is only allowing 119.7 yards per game on 3.03 yards per rush. They rank 30^th nationally. Michigan has struggled to run the ball, with only 154 yards per game on 3.96 yards per rush.  Of course, right on cue, Notre dame allows 154 yards per game on 3.93 yards per rush. It's a bit of a toss up especially considering that if you take the average yards per game for Notre Dame (189) plus Michigan's average yards allowed per game (119.7) divide it by two and it's 154.35 yards.

Final Prediction

Based on the analysis above, Notre Dame should hold the edge overall as long as they can impose their will in the trenches. Notre Dame will be able to capitalize on Michigan’s mistakes and force incompetent head coach Jim Harbaugh to make some poor “under-dog” like calls such as going for it on fourth and short – possibly attempting a special team’s fake to try to get the crowd, which hates him, back behind him. Only to come up short in this game of inches. Notre Dame takes advantage of the bye week, defense gets a touchdown in the first half, and the Irish spank the Wolverines 28-10. For more breakdown of the Irish at the halfway point check out the Midyear Evaluation!