UNLV basketball head coach Marvin Menzies isn’t shy when talking about rebuilding the men’s basketball program in Las Vegas. The groundwork has been laid with a couple recruiting classes, and last year’s 20-win season included promise that, while not exactly filling up the Thomas & Mack Center, presented fans with enough reason to keep a side-eye on what once was the center of sports pride in Vegas — Runnin' Rebels basketball.
Entering Year 3 with Menzies at the helm, the Rebel Rebuild seems to have gained some traction. The roster features 10 sophomores and freshmen, and although a few of those sophomores saw plenty of minutes last season, youth is youth. The Mountain West is Reno’s to lose, and even then, UNLV is not a team expected to challenge for the conference crown nor a postseason bid.
With that inspiring foundation set, here’s what to expect, watch for and hope to see from UNLV in the 2018-19 season.
Changing of the Guard(s)
Guards Jovan Mooring and Jordan Johnson were the backcourt engine for the Rebels last year, and the offense relied heavily on their ability to balance distribution between their own scoring and getting Brandon McCoy and Shakur Juiston enough touches. Replacing two senior guards who combined for 27.4 points per game is a tall task. Redshirt senior Noah Robotham and sophomore Amauri Hardy are expected to shoulder the responsibility as the primary ball-handlers this season.
If Robotham’s name is familiar, you probably either grew up watching a lot of Bishop Gorman or you paid too close attention to Las Vegas high school basketball (personally, I’m the former). Robotham was a sophomore on the Gaels team that featured an NBA first-round pick in Shabazz Muhammad, a top-10 NFL draft pick in Ronnie Stanley and six other players who played Division I hoops.
Robotham pretty much ran the team then, and in three years at Akron, he started in virtually every single game. He is a steady presence in the backcourt and a local kid who has Menzies gushing about how much he loves UNLV basketball. In his last season at Akron, the Zips finished on top of the Mid-Atlantic Conference standings with a 27-9 record. Robotham averaged 8.8 points and three assists during the run, but those numbers will likely benefit from a much faster pace.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0anp4G9_BY
More than a few former Runnin' Rebels were high on Robotham, including former Rebel great Robert Smith, who gave Sin City Sports Mockery his thoughts back in August.
“I have watched Noah since he was a little kid and grow through the years,” Smith said. “He has strong family values and his father helped teach him the game the right way. Noah is a true point guard who has no problem getting his teammates the ball and help elevate their games. He also has the ability to score when his team needs him to and can knock down the three.”
Hardy spent last year as a serviceable backup, averaging five points and 1.6 assists in 19 minutes per game. Naturally, he had his struggles adjusting to college basketball, but he flashed an ability to get to his spots on offense and compete on defense. How his shot progresses in his sophomore campaign will be key. He sank less than 30 percent of his shots from beyond the arc, but his 72.7 percent clip from the free-throw line suggests he has a good foundation.
Off the ball, Kris Clyburn is the most experienced perimeter player on the roster. He is a streaky shooter who surprisingly ranked third in the team in rebounding, but he lost his starting spot to Tervell Beck midway through the season.
This is where freshmen Bryce Hamilton and Trey Woodbury come into play. They’re both scorers at 6-foot-4 who will be important in unlocking some diversity to UNLV’s attack.
Hamilton, a four-star recruit, has the reputation of a slashing scorer who will can slither to the rim for lay-ins and floaters. He has a long, lanky body, and isn’t shy about contact when he attacks the rim. How he adjusts to the uptick in physicality will ebb and flow throughout the year. Woodbury, a local product, has a strong, athletic frame and very little wasted movement when he looks to score. Whether he can get to his spots off the dribble or become a reliable catch-and-shoot option will dictate his role offensively.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbDv-iYyIqA
Defensively, well, they’re freshmen. More on that side of the ball in general to come later.
Speed, Speed, Speed
Menzies promised a high-tempo a la the glory days of UNLV that nobody (everybody) glows about, and last season, the Rebels delivered. They were 13th in the country with 83.4 points per game and ranked No. 22 in adjusted tempo, according to KenPom. Having two senior guards in Mooring and Johnson naturally helped push the pace, and although those two are gone, Hardy and Robotham figure to slot right into the lineup.
UNLV will obviously miss Brandon McCoy’s size and skill. You don’t just pick up a top, 7-foot recruit every year in the Mountain West. That said, Juiston still exists, and Cheickna Dembele and Cheikh Mbacke Diong are long and bouncy enough to convert off tip-ins and dump-offs. Don’t expect the Rebels to lose the Runnin’ from their name at any point this season.
Shooters shoot, but what about non-shooters?
Speed for speed’s sake isn’t enough. Efficiency matters too. Having a reliable inside scorer in Juiston helps, but the Rebels struggled mightily from the perimeter. Their 33.4 percent clip from three ranked No. 261 in the country, and that number dipped below 30 percent in conference play. The team made double-digit threes in a game just once — a November contest against Rice. In the 14 games UNLV shot above 35 percent from three, the team won 13 of them.
Most of UNLV’s threes came from Johnson and Mooring. After that, only Hardy and Clyburn put up more than 60 shots from deep last season. Robotham holds a career three-point mark of 38.5 percent, but after him, there isn’t a reliable outside shooting threat on the roster. Hamilton and Woodbury could breathe some life into UNLV’s shooting ability, but relying on freshmen in any aspect is always dicey. Maybe the team can function without great shooting, but the lack of a threat will only cause defenses to collapse in on Juiston more, and of course, UNLV has that ever-important three-point streak to keep.
The best defense is...still defense
UNLV’s defense was, objectively speaking, terrible. It ranked 305th in opponents points per game and 174th in KenPom’s adjusted defense ratings. The numbers were cringe-worthy enough, and actually watching the games proved it wasn’t a fluke because of the high pace of play. At points, opponents looked like they were running 5-on-0 offense. Teams exploited McCoy’s struggles in pick-and-roll coverage, and there didn’t seem to be many adjustments beyond that.
Hypothetically though, with experience comes improvement, and Hardy, Beck, Clyburn and Juiston all have physical tools to be good defenders. Because of their size, Beck and Juiston particularly have some switchability that should help. Demebele and Diong are springy and long and could provide rim protection, but cleaning up the glass will also be critical in limiting second-chance points. Juiston is a monster rebounder, and whoever steps up to fill the void that McCoy leaves in that department will be important to a degree.
McCoy and Juiston were tenacious on the offensive glass last season, but UNLV was below average in keeping its opponents from grabbing their own misses. Finishing defensive possessions is not only key in the fact that it gives the other team less chances to score (duh), but it also increases transition scoring opportunities. After a miss, UNLV’s effective shooting percentage within the first 10 seconds of the shot clock was 52.6 percent, according to Hoop-Math.com. In that same shot clock window after a make, that number dropped to 46.8 percent.
Even if UNLV’s defense isn’t great, the team can help itself by cleaning up the misses it does force and immediately putting pressure on in transition.
*Extremely David Schwimmer voice* “Juice”
I haven’t spent much time talking about Shakur Juiston because he’s the surest thing on the roster. His debut season in a UNLV jersey ended in second-team all-MWC honors after averaging 14.6 points and 10 boards per game. He’ll play his tail off, crash the offensive and defensive glass, and score in ways that don’t require plays to be run for him. He’s unselfish, and he always does what the team requires of him.
What this Rebels team needs from him is him to be The Man.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fv1z5PeiYhA
His attacks are often quick and to the point, but he got caught running into walls at times. He averaged more turnovers (2.5) than assists (1.9), and although nobody is asking him to become Marc Gasol, finding open shooters when defenses stop his path to the rim would give teams even more headaches when guarding him.
He isn’t a player who will punish a team from 18-feet from the basket, but he is a bulldozer who gets to the rim at will. More than 60 percent of his shots came at the rim last season, according to Hoop-Math.com, and he converted nearly three-fourths of the time he was there. He only drew fouls on a quarter of his attempts and only converted half of his shots when he did step to the charity stripe, but regardless, he’s the engine that’ll make UNLV go this season.
Reasons for hope, both future and immediate
In the end, a 6th-place finish in the Mountain West is both possible and acceptable. Given the youth on the team, there’s bound to be a fair share of struggles, but what gave the sourest note to last season was seeing the team lose five of its final six games. One would hope a young team would put together its best performances as the season continued, but that wasn’t the case.
This year’s Rebels will lean on Juiston and Robotham for stability. How the players around them fall into place and find their games will flow throughout the year. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a 20-point game from Hamilton. I hope to see Hardy build on a decent freshman season that and develop into a solid starting collegiate guard. I’d put money on Juiston posting a 20-point, 20-rebound performance at some point this season.
UNLV’s non-conference season doesn’t hold any Arizona-level juggernauts on it, but December contests against Cincinnati and Illinois will provide a good proving ground before the Mountain West slate starts. When its all said and done though, don’t expect more than a mid-table finish in conference for the Rebels. This is still a rebuilding project, but at the end of it, it’s reasonable to expect a clearer picture for the program to be painted by season’s end.
TL;DR
The Rebels will be competitive, but don’t expect them to compete for a regular season conference title.
Last Season: 20-13 (8-10, 7th in the Mountain West)
Key Additions: Noah Robotham (transfer), Nick Blair (transfer), Bryce Hamilton (freshman), Trey Woodbury (freshman)
Key Losses: Jordan Johnson (graduation), Jovan Mooring (graduation), Brandon McCoy (left early)
Key Returners: Shakur Juiston (senior), Kris Clyburn (senior), Amauri Hardy (sophomore), Tervell Beck (sophomore), Cheickna Dembele (junior), Cheikh Mbacke Diong (sophomore) Preseason Expectations: 6th in the Mountain West
Key players: Juiston, Robotham, Hardy
X-factors: Beck, Hamilton/Woodbury, Dembele/Diong
