Bears Twitter lost its damn mind when the team cut Tyler Scott and Zacch Pickens — two Day 2 draft picks from just two years ago. The outrage machine fired up immediately: "Poles can’t draft," "wasted picks," "here we go again." But let’s take a step back and actually unpack what the hell is happening here, because knee-jerk reactions rarely tell the whole story.
Are the Bears in trouble? Did Ryan Poles just out himself as another GM who can’t evaluate talent beyond the obvious blue-chips? Or is this just the messy reality of the NFL draft? Spoiler: it’s mostly the latter.
The NFL Draft Is a Crapshoot
Fans hate hearing it, but the NFL draft is basically a casino. Unless you’re picking in the top 20, you’re rolling dice and praying you don’t come up snake eyes. Numbers don’t lie:
- 3rd-rounders hit just 22-36% of the time. That means most of them fail. That’s league-wide, not just the Bears.
- 4th-rounders? You’re down to a 16-20% hit rate.
- Overall Day 2 (Rounds 2-3): Success hovers between 25-35%.
- The blunt truth: 50-70% of all picks in any given draft fail to meet expectations.
So yeah, cutting a third-rounder and a fourth-rounder after two years feels ugly. But statistically? That’s par for the course. Hell, it might even be ahead of the curve if Poles’ other picks pan out.
Why Scott and Pickens Got the Axe
Let’s call it like it is: both Tyler Scott and Zacch Pickens were drafted with promise, but neither produced enough to justify a roster spot in Year 3. In today’s NFL, you don’t get three years to develop — if you’re not flashing by the second season, you’re gone.
Scott came out of Cincinnati looking like a burner, but in Chicago he managed just 17 receptions for 168 yards as a rookie and one lonely catch for five yards in 2024. That’s it. Undrafted free agent Jahdae Walker flat-out beat him for snaps. If you can’t outproduce a UDFA on a WR-thin roster, your time is up.
Pickens was a former five-star who looked like a steal at 64th overall. Instead, he posted meh college numbers (22 tackles, 2.5 sacks in his last season) and never developed the pass-rush juice the pros demand. When Dennis Allen’s scheme showed up, his skillset just didn’t fit. Wrong place, wrong time — and no GM has the patience anymore to wait and see.
Cutting Second-Year Picks Isn’t Some GM Apocalypse
Fans think this never happens, but it’s more common than people realize. Why?
- Shorter development windows. Salary cap and roster churn don’t allow teams to babysit struggling players for years.
- Positional competition. Scott got leapfrogged by Walker. Pickens couldn’t crack Allen’s rotation. That’s the league.
- Scheme changes. New coordinators want their guys. Old draft picks get left behind.
It sucks to admit your draft picks missed. But it’s even worse to cling to them out of pride while your roster stagnates. Cutting fast is often smarter than waiting for a miracle that won’t come.
Poles’ Draft Record in Context
Before we start sharpening pitchforks, let’s look at Poles’ full body of work.
2022 Draft (11 picks)
- Hits: Kyler Gordon (locked in through 2028), Jaquan Brisker, Braxton Jones.
- Miss: Velus Jones Jr. — gone after two years.
- Depth: Elijah Hicks, Dominique Robinson
- Hit rate: ~45.5% still contributing.
2023 Draft (10 picks)
- Hits: Darnell Wright, Gervon Dexter Sr., Tyrique Stevenson.
- Misses: Pickens, Scott.
- Depth: Roschon Johnson, Terrell Smith, Noah Sewell
- Hit rate: ~50% still contributing.
Day 2 Performance (Rounds 2-3): 75% success rate. That’s well above league averages.
First-round picks: 100% success so far (Wright, Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze). If your GM nails Round 1 and gets solid value later, you’re in good shape.
Compared to the League, Poles Looks… Pretty Damn Good
- Overall hit rate: 47.6%. That’s above standard expectations.
- Round 1: Perfect so far.
- Value later: Braxton Jones (5th round) was a gem.
The league norm for Day 2 misses is brutal: 65-80% of 3rd and 4th rounders flame out. Even the best GMs whiff there. The job isn’t to bat 1.000 — it’s to maximize Round 1 and 2 hits, sprinkle in a couple late-round surprises, and cut your mistakes before they drag the roster down.
Poles checks those boxes.
Should Bears Fans Freak Out?
Short answer: no. Here’s why:
- This is the norm. Cutting Day 2 guys after two years happens everywhere.
- Roster spots matter. Keeping Scott or Pickens just because they were drafted high is the sunk-cost fallacy. Better to let them go and find out if Walker or another young guy can play.
- Scheme changes kill careers. Both players were drafted for old systems. Wrong fit, wrong time.
- The Bears are in win-now mode. Caleb Williams is on his rookie deal. There’s no patience for long-term projects anymore.
The Bigger Lesson
This isn’t about two draft busts. It’s about whether Poles is improving as a drafter. The early signs say yes — he’s finding high-upside, scheme-flexible guys in recent classes. The real danger would be if he kept doubling down on rigid, one-dimensional players who couldn’t adapt.
By cutting Scott and Pickens, Poles showed he’s not going to let ego drive the roster. That’s actually a strength. Good GMs own their mistakes, cut losses fast, and keep building.
Final Verdict
Losing two Day 2 picks stings. Nobody’s saying it doesn’t. But in the cold, hard reality of NFL drafting, this isn’t a red flag — it’s business as usual. The Bears still sit ahead of the curve with a GM who’s hitting on premium picks, finding late-round value, and refusing to let sunk costs clog the depth chart.
If you’re looking for reasons to panic, look elsewhere. The Scott and Pickens cuts don’t say “Poles can’t draft.” They say “Poles won’t waste time.” And in today’s NFL, that’s how you stay competitive.
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