Justin Fields came so close to changing the narrative about his status as the Chicago Bears quarterback. No more Caleb Williams or Drake Maye talk. He was hot, coming off two great games against Denver and Washington. He'd hoped to keep it going against Minnesota. Instead, he reverted to the erratic form he showed in September and then dislocated his thumb. That felt like the tipping point. Chicago is 1-5 and will rely on Tyson Bagent, an undrafted rookie, to keep them from going 1-6 against Las Vegas. Even if Fields manages to return next week, it might be too late.
The schedule gets considerably tougher with four road games in five weeks. Several opponents will feature strong pass rushes. It's hard to feel he has any hope of stopping the runaway train. Presuming the Bears end up with the #1 or #2 pick in the 2024 draft, it feels like a foregone conclusion they're taking a quarterback. So what happens if the Bears have their choice of both? Everybody seems to think Williams is the unquestioned pick. One notable metric disagrees.
Caleb Williams and Drake Maye should not be set in stone.
There is no definitive way to evaluate quarterbacks. If there were, every team would probably have a good one. There are misfires all the time. However, one metric via ESPN has been surprisingly accurate at predicting who the good ones will be from each draft class. It's called EPA, or total expected points added with low-leverage plays. It measures how many points a quarterback adds to a team's expected total. In other words, how big of an impact they had. Here is every 1st round QB between 2015 and 2020 since all of them have been in the league for three full seasons at least. It's surprisingly accurate, with some apparent outliers.
2015 NFL Draft:
- Marcus Mariota - 122.4 (1st)
- Jameis Winston - 51.7 (27th)
2016 NFL Draft:
- Jared Goff - 89.6 (6th)
- Paxton Lynch - 75.8 (11th)
- Carson Wentz - N/A (Went to FCS school)
2017 NFL Draft:
- Patrick Mahomes - 116.0 (1st)
- Deshaun Watson - 108.0 (4th)
- Mitch Trubisky - 90.5 (6th)
2018 NFL Draft:
- Baker Mayfield - 114.7 (1st)
- Lamar Jackson - 99.4 (4th)
- Sam Darnold - 60.3 (18th)
- Josh Rosen - 40.5 (49th)
- Josh Allen - 32.5 (63rd)
2019 NFL Draft:
- Kyler Murray - 143.1 (1st)
- Dwayne Haskins - 95.3 (3rd)
- Daniel Jones - 43.8 (45th)
2020 NFL Draft:
- Joe Burrow - 147.9 (1st)
- Tua Tagovailoa - 65.4 (23rd)
- Justin Herbert - 55.3 (32nd)
- Jordan Love - 51.7 (Outside Top 65)
Here's where it gets fun. This metric, at least for the time being, predicted C.J. Stroud would be better than Bryce Young. Stroud had a score of 66.1. Young had a 65.8. Now, we get to the crux of the matter. Everybody is already debating Caleb Williams vs. Drake Maye. Most believe Williams is the uncontested #1 quarterback in this class. Not according to the EPA.
2022:
- Maye - 115.4
- Williams - 112.5
2023:
- Maye - 44.1
- Williams - 43.0
It's close, but Maye has kept a lead over Williams for almost two full seasons now. This could mean nothing. As the list above proves, there are exceptions to the rule. Josh Allen and Justin Herbert both defied the metric. Of course, both are freaks of nature with cannons for arms. Tua has been surrounded by an ideal supporting cast and an innovative head coach. Defying the odds is easier when that is the case. There is a strong possibility Maye and Williams will both be good quarterbacks in the NFL. However, based on EPA, it's looking like Maye should not be relegated to second place so quickly.
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