The bullpen was reconstructed during the early part of the offseason, but the heavy lifting seemingly began once the calendar flipped to January. After missing out on other free agent starters the Cubs pivoted to the trade market and acquired Edward Cabrera. Now, free agent rumors are picking up...
Let's be optimistic.
According to some rumors Bryce Harper prefers to play for the Cubs and may be willing to wait for the team to figure out how to move some money around to make room for him on the payroll.
https://www.sportsmockery.com/2018/12/bryce-harper-to-the-cubs-rumors-keep-getting-stronger/
OK, cool. The Winter Meetings already happened, Scott Boras talked to the media, but there is no indication that teams are in deep negotiations yet alone that Harper is close to signing with anyone.
So again, let's be optimistic. Bryce is waiting on the Cubs.
But, how do the Cubs make room?
Tyler Chatwood has two years left on his deal that will pay him $25.5 million. Yet, he just came off the worst year of his career and even if it is an outlier and a change of scenery could help, a positive regression for Chatwood is still only a fourth starter at best? Not really appealing for teams unless the Cubs attach one of their best prospects in a trade. However, even if the Cubs get rid of Chatwood that's only $12.6 million off the payroll that calculates luxury tax penalties.
For the luxury tax, the average annual value of a contract is factored in not each year's paid salary.
There's Ben Zobrist, who has one year left on his contract with the Cubs. He just had one of the best seasons of his career and his luxury tax hit is $14 million. But trading him creates another hole in the roster.
The Cubs also have a couple smaller deals in the bullpen that they probably don't want. Brandon Kintzler will make $5 million and Brian Duensing will make $3.5 million in 2019.
Those four players account for just a little more than $35 million in average annual value on the payroll.
But it's time to get real. The Cubs aren't getting rid of all four players and even if Chatwood or Zobrist are moved the team still has to address the bullpen that's in bad shape and they still need infield depth.
So yeah, if the Cubs want a chance at Harper by being creative and move salary, it most likely comes down to trading Jason Heyward.
Obviously three years into Heyward's career with the Cubs, his eight-year, $184 million contract looks awful. He's only been worth 4 fWAR in three seasons combined after averaging 4.7 fWAR the four years prior to signing with the Cubs.
Not ideal.
Heyward has five years, $106 million left on his contract. Through the first three years of his deal he had a full no-trade clause, but for the next two offseasons that's down to a partial no-trade clause. Heyward can veto a trade involving 12 teams, but we don't know who's on the list.
In any trade involving Heyward the Cubs are going to cover some of the money. But what team can the Cubs trade him too? Who's looking for an outfielder, a gold glove outfielder to play in a tough ballpark? Who's still trying to be somewhat competitive?
Did someone say the San Francisco Giants???
So, Kevin Pillar is a great defensive center fielder. I mean, just makes spectacular plays out there for the Blue Jays. But hey, Jason Heyward is pretty damn in the outfield too and has shown he can make some unreal plays in San Francisco.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N8m2hlrRAC8
But Pillar isn't owed $106 million over the next five years.
The right-handed hitter is projected to get $5.3 million in 2019, as Pillar is in his second year of arbitration.
Let's keep being optimistic.
Pillar costs less money wise, but he'll definitely cost the Giants a few decent prospects. San Francisco is rated toward the bottom of farm systems in MLB, so that won't necessarily be easy for the Giants.
What if the Cubs take on half of Heyward's remaining contract?
I mean, if the Giants want a great outfielder, you'd think they'd want one who's been the better hitter.
Kevin Pillar career: .261/.298/.398
Jason Heyward career: .263/.343/.410
Now, there's no question that Heyward's power has gone done with the Cubs, with his slugging staying below .400 since 2016. But you know where Heyward, for whatever reason, absolutely rakes?
San Francisco and in a few other NL West ballparks too.
C'mon Giants, Heyward for five years at $10.6 million per season, with the hope he once again regains some of his offensive prowess, while playing in a park that he dominates in, oh and you still get the gold glove in the outfield that you want?
C'mon Giants, do it.
All right. Now back to reality.
The Cubs are most likely screwed here, but hey if Bryce is going to keep waiting, I guess it gives Theo Epstein time to work a miracle.
And finally, the luxury tax? C'mon, Ricketts, you can afford it.
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