Shane Smith Continues To Show Growth Amid Fatigue Concerns

Shane Smith has emerged as one of the bright spots on the White Sox pitching staff, however, there has been one recurring theme that has plagued him early on: fatigue. 

Smith earned his first career MLB win in Minnesota on Thursday during a rain-soaked contest that was shortened to just seven innings. The victory snapped a 14-game losing streak at Target Field for the White Sox. While it wasn’t exactly how Smith envisioned his first career victory, the 25-year-old right-hander showed promising growth as he grinded through five scoreless innings despite not having his best stuff.  

The White Sox’s 25th-ranked prospect has logged 27.1 innings over five starts this season, posting an impressive 2.30 ERA—eighth-best in the American League—and a 0.95 WHIP, which ranks seventh in the AL.

His 29 percent whiff rate ranks among the best in baseball, driven in large part by a filthy changeup that sits in the 98th percentile for offspeed run value across the majors.

On Thursday, he used his fastball and changeup to induce a ton of weak contact against the Twins. He threw 61 percent of his 82 pitches for strikes, racking up a career high seven strikeouts and allowing just four hits and a walk to the 19 batters he faced. 

Shane Smith continued his strong rookie season with 5 scoreless IP against the Twins. His fastball and changeup carried his results today as he induced a ton of weak contact

He lowered his ERA to a pristine 2.30 pic.twitter.com/Vlm87nVRfu

— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) April 24, 2025

“He looked like he’s looked every start,” White Sox manager Will Venable told reporters on Thursday. “I guess today was a little different where there was a lot of offspeed early in the game and then got back to the good fastball and really mixed it up.” 

Smith admitted he "didn't feel sharp" after the game, but still helped his cause by striking out the Twins' hottest hitters, Byron Buxton and Trevor Larnach, twice each, and picking off Edouard Julien in the first inning after surrendering a leadoff single.

Smith has been dominant for much of the season, but has run into problems as his pitch count rises and fatigue sets in. His average pitch velocity by inning holds steady around 92 mph through the first three innings,  but dips to 90 mph in the fourth and drops further to 89 mph by the sixth.

There are also clear signs when fatigue starts to set in for Smith. His mechanics begin to break down, often leading to elevated fastballs. His splits have been flawless through the first four innings this season, posting a 0.00 ERA, but that number jumps to 5.79 in the fifth and skyrockets to 13.50 in the sixth.

In the fifth inning against the Twins, it looked as though fatigue might rear its ugly head once again. But Smith stayed aggressive, working around a leadoff single by inducing a groundout that advanced the runner, then getting Christian Vázquez to pop out. He capped the frame—and his outing—by freezing Edouard Julien with a 94 mph fastball for his 82nd and final pitch of the day.

“I think I can be aggressive as I want to be, whether it’s soft stuff in the zone, hard in the zone, I think I can command it well enough that I’m not going to get hurt a lot of the time,” Smith told MLB.com. “I just have a lot of confidence in what I’m doing.” 

This is Smith’s first season as a big league starter, so growing pains are to be expected, and finding ways to get deeper into games will come with more experience. But the early returns have been promising. 

The White Sox selected Smith with the top pick in the Rule 5 Draft, which requires him to remain on the major league roster for the entire season, or else be offered back to the Brewers at a discounted price. Given his performance the first month of the year, that won’t be a concern for the White Sox, who appear to have found a blossoming ace.