Luis Robert Jr. is the biggest enigma currently on the White Sox roster. He is now the longest-tenured player on the team and should be the best player on the team on paper. Yet he is arguably also the most disappointing player and the last remnant of the old core that fizzled out way quicker than people thought. Fans expect superstar production from him, but he has not played at that level recently. 2024 was by far the worst year of his career, and he hasn't been any better to begin 2025. His career year in 2023 feels like a distant memory at this point. It is not all bad, however. Robert Jr.'s underlying numbers so far this season show encouraging signs regarding a potential bounce-back.
It is worth noting that the 2025 season sample size is tiny. The White Sox have played only nine games so far, just over 5% of the season. One can only project so much from a nine-game sample, and things can change quickly. However, the early returns on Robert Jr. are promising in several key areas.
Increased Bat Speed
The most notable development from Robert Jr.'s season so far is his increased bat speed, up almost two full MPH from last year. Increased bat speed is good, as it creates higher exit velocities and distance off the bat. Several factors could explain this change, but it is fair to assume that Ryan Fuller, the White Sox new Director of Hitting brought in this past offseason, has played some role in this development. During spring training, James Fegan of SoxMachine reported that Robert Jr. used state-of-the-art Trajekt pitching machines during his preseason preparations. The machines allow him to study certain pitches by their movement, spin rates, and velocity. Considering he has historically struggled against offspeed pitches, the work he is putting in behind the scenes could be a game-changer. While those efforts have not yet paid dividends in the stats, they are reflected in his underlying numbers that paint a more promising picture.
Higher Barrel Percentage
Robert Jr.'s barrel percentage has increased this season, likely because of his work with the Trajekt machines. He was in the 66th percentile in that category last season, compared to the 79th percentile now. He currently has the second-best barrel% of his MLB career, behind only his 2023 season. Interestingly enough, Robert Jr.'s hard-hit %, launch angle sweet-spot %, and average exit velocity percentiles are lower than last season and some of the lowest of his career to date. Still, he is barreling the ball up at an elite rate. His .238 BABIP this season indicates that he has been unlucky, considering his BABIP has been at least .300 in every season of his career until now. It is only a matter of time before the results follow, given that he is barreling the ball up and is due for some favorable batted-ball luck.
Improved Plate Discipline
Another significant change is Robert Jr.'s patience at the plate. Historically, he is a free swinger who rarely takes walks. That has not been the case thus far in 2025. He is one of the league leaders in decreased chase% from last season to now. In other words, he is swinging at fewer pitches out of the strike zone. His improved plate selection is reflected in his BB%, which has shot up from 6.6%, the 28th percentile last year, to 11.1%, the 62nd percentile now. He is also striking out at a lower rate than last season. The lack of talent around Robert Jr. in the lineup could explain this change. Opposing pitchers would rather pitch around him than let him beat them, leading to more walks. Still, seeing Robert Jr. show more patience in the batter's box is encouraging. Being more patient is something he worked on over the offseason.
Higher Sprint Speed
Increased sprint speed is another category that inspires optimism for Robert Jr. He is currently in the 96th percentile in that category this year, compared to the 88th percentile last season. Injuries have always been a significant concern for Robert Jr. He has had several lower-body injuries over his career that have sometimes limited his explosiveness and athleticism. The fact that he has been one of the fastest players in the game indicates that he is feeling good physically. His improved speed has translated to improved defensive performance. Robert Jr. enters the day in the 85th percentile in Fielding Run Value compared to the 50th percentile last season. His Baserunning Value and Arm Value have also improved, most likely because his legs are strong and healthy. Part of Robert Jr.'s intrigue is his ability to play a Gold Glove caliber center field. It is early, but we are seeing that version of him again.
Historical Trends
Robert Jr.'s past trends are an additional factor to consider. Historically, he starts every season slow offensively. It is not a new development or something unexpected. His worst months statistically throughout his career are April and September. It isn't a coincidence that those are the two coldest months of the season. Even in Robert Jr.'s career 2023 season, he still didn't perform all that well in April. He is much like former teammate José Abreu in that regard. They start slow but heat up along with the weather. Robert Jr.'s best statistical month historically is May, so it is only a matter of time before he picks up the pace offensively.
Luis Robert Jr.'s Pivotal Season
Luis Robert Jr. remains one of the most talented but frustrating players in recent White Sox history. He will ultimately have to prove he is the player he used to be. The underlying numbers only mean so much if the stats on the back of the baseball card are not up to his standards. But his demise is being greatly exaggerated. It is not a situation where his physical talents are gone. Plenty of aspects in his profile are encouraging and provide optimism that he will return to being the type of impact player he has been in the past.
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